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【广发证券】威龙股份:区域性领导品牌,借力有机葡萄酒实现差异化竞争

廣發證券 ·  May 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

A leading regional brand with strong ability to withstand pressure. The company's comprehensive index ranks in the top three in the national wine industry. It mainly includes three series of products: traditional wine, organic wine, and grape liquor. Among them, the proportion of organic wine increased year by year, accounting for 39% in 2015. The 15-year performance recovery was obvious, achieving main business revenue of 724 million yuan, an increase of 2.64%, and net profit of 42 million yuan, an increase of 18.47%. The company is deeply involved in East China and continues to account for more than 70% of sales. The company is a private enterprise, and the personal interests of the company's managers and employees tend to be consistent with the overall interests of the company, which is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The organic wine market has great potential for growth, and Veyron is expected to benefit. China's organic wine segment is on the rise. Sales volume is growing rapidly. The compound growth rate from 2009 to 12 was as high as 66.59%. Referring to Europe's 15% consumption growth rate, it is expected that future sales will maintain a high growth rate of 30%. China's current consumption scale is relatively small. Compared with Western countries accounting for about 30% of consumption, there is plenty of room for growth. With frequent food safety incidents, organic food is gradually receiving attention from consumers, and organic wine is expected to usher in new growth, and Veyron is expected to benefit as the market leader in this segment. Organic wine is in line with consumption upgrades and has great potential for regional expansion. (1) The company's nationalization process has begun to bear fruit. Sales revenue in the North, South, and Northwest regions increased by 9%, 17%, and 63% respectively in 2015. In the future, it will continue to gain strength in the empty market, and performance is expected to recover. (2) Organic wine has become the company's leading product, ranking first in the market share, far surpassing the second place. However, since the price of organic wine priced at 150-300 yuan is slightly higher than the price of Jiebaina (80 yuan), sales fluctuated greatly during industry adjustments. However, we believe that organic wine is in line with the trend of consumption upgrading, and sales volume is expected to increase further in the future with marketing and channel expansion, which will drive performance growth. It is planned to issue no more than 50.2 million shares of common stock this time, invest 18,000 mu of organic wine growing project+40,000 tons of organic wine production project+marketing network construction to save energy for later organic wine development. The remaining capital will be used to repay bank loans. It is expected that the company's financial expenses will be drastically reduced and the net profit will be greatly reduced. Investment advice. The company's net profit is expected to grow at 63%/32%/13%, 16-18 EPS0.34/0.45/0.51. Weilong shares will gradually return to normal 16 and 17 years after listing due to high debt and financial expenses and a sharp decline in net profit. According to Changyu's valuation, Veyron will be given 18 times PE in 17 years, and the company's target price is 8 yuan. Risk warning. The economic growth rate has declined sharply; organic wine is slow to sell, and production capacity is overcapacity.

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