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【国泰君安】棒杰股份更新报告:“无缝”对接医疗健康

國泰君安 ·  Jan 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: We issued an announcement on January 8, 2015 to cover the first report, and continue to be optimistic about the company's transformation into the healthcare industry: in June 2015, we also set up a healthcare industry fund. The future layout of the healthcare industry is expected to exceed market expectations and increase ratings. Investment points: Maintain an overweight rating. We believe that the production capacity release of the company's main clothing industry in the next two years will exceed our previous expectations. The 2015-17 EPS was raised to 0.29/0.36/0.47 yuan (previously 0.26/0.25/0.28 yuan), referring to the valuations of leading companies in industry transformation, and considering that the company's transformation of the healthcare industry is expected to exceed market expectations, the target price increase to 60 yuan, corresponding to 128 times PE in 2017. Establish a healthcare merger and acquisition fund to reserve high-quality integration targets for the company's transformation. In June 2015, a 1 billion medical industry merger and acquisition fund was set up with Shangxin Capital to raise 200 million yuan in the first phase, of which the company invested 50 million yuan with its own capital. M&A funds mainly invest in the major health sector, reserve integrated targets for the company's transformation to the medical and health sector, and accelerate the company's strategic transformation. The healthcare industry has a large market space, and the partners have extensive experience in investing in the medical field. 1) In 2014, China's total health expenses were about 3.5 trillion yuan, 4.07 times that of 2005, and the compound annual growth rate was as high as 17.64%. In particular, private hospitals benefited from policy liberalization and were in a period of explosive growth. 2) Investment in the healthcare industry is the core business sector of Shang Xin Capital. The representative investment projects that the fund has managed include the Shanghai New Hongqiao International Medical Center project, the Shanghai Hongfeng Yatai Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital sandwich fund project, and minimally invasive medicine, all of which are excellent projects. The main seamless clothing industry benefits from increased industry concentration and the release of production capacity, and is expected to improve revenue and profit levels in the next few years. 1) With the gradual clearing of the seamless clothing industry market and increasing concentration due to continuous upgrading of consumption, the company's seamless clothing domestic and global market shares are about 2.08% and 1.11%, and it is expected that the company will continue to benefit from the increase in industry concentration. 2) Upstream production capacity was increased by 150 million yuan in 2014 through allotment of shares. It is estimated that production capacity can be released in 2016. Costs are reduced through the extension of the industrial chain, and gross margin is expected to increase by about 3-5 pct. Risk warning: The main clothing industry continues to decline, the transformation of the healthcare industry falls short of expectations, etc.

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