Main points of investment
Event: a few days ago, we talked with senior executives of Randy Group about the company's business operation and future development direction.
There is still room for household air conditioners in the future, and those with strong plastic blades are always strong. Randy Group is the leader of plastic air conditioners in China, with production bases in many places throughout the country, and is the core supplier of Gree, Midea, Mitsubishi of Japan, LG of South Korea and other well-known brands of air conditioning plants, with a market share of 24%. There is still room for the development of household air conditioners in China in the future. on the one hand, there is a demand for centralized upgrading in cities, and on the other hand, there is only 34 air conditioners per 100 households in rural areas, which is far lower than that of refrigerators and washing machines per 100 rural households (78 and 75 respectively). There is still room for the development of household air conditioners. The market of plastic blades, which is mainly used in household air conditioners, is fully competitive, and the situation of the strong will be strong in the future. the company's market share has increased from 19% in 13 years to 24% in 15 years, and is expected to be further improved in the future.
Metal fan blue sea, the company is expected to take advantage of the channel advantage to quickly increase its share. Central air conditioning has developed rapidly in recent years because of its energy saving and comfort. The market capacity of central air conditioning has increased rapidly from less than 40 billion yuan in 2010 to 66 billion yuan now. Different from the domestic air conditioning market dominated by domestic brands, foreign brands still occupy more than 50% of the central air conditioning market. In the past two years, with the breakthrough in the core technology of domestic brands, Gree, Midea and other domestic air conditioning enterprises have shifted their focus to the central air conditioning field, and their market share has increased from 21% in 10 years to 30% in 15 years. At present, the company's metal fan has completed the previous research and development and test, and passed the test of the whole machine manufacturer, and began to enter a period of rapid development. The company is expected to gradually increase the market share of metal fan with the help of Gree, Midea and other customer and channel advantages.
Fund-raising projects break through the capacity bottleneck and consolidate the company's leading position. The company's initial IPO raised 230 million yuan to invest in air conditioning blades production projects, 3.5 million sets of commercial air conditioning fans and R & D centers. At present, the company's production line is close to full load all the year round, and the production capacity bottleneck restricts the development of the company. After the project is put into production, the production capacity of plastic blades will increase from 51.25 million to 67.25 million, and the production capacity of commercial air conditioning fans will increase by 3.5 million sets. We believe that the implementation of the investment project will greatly improve the overall competitiveness of the company, help to consolidate and improve the company's leading position in the plastic blades market, and quickly seize the metal blades market.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.72,0.86 and 1.03 yuan respectively, corresponding to 67 times, 56 times and 47 times of PE respectively, giving the company an "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: the risk that the fund-raising project will not progress as expected; the risk of a prolonged downturn in the air conditioning market; and the risk of substantial fluctuations in raw materials.