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【海通证券】未名医药公司研究报告:生物制品领域新秀,新品EV71即将上市

海通證券 ·  Jun 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: New faces in the capital market: Wanchang Technology, as a leader in the fine chemical intermediates segment, has become the country's largest producer of trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthoformate (pesticides, pharmaceutical intermediates). Unknown Pharmaceutical completed its listing on October 20, 2015 through Backdoor Wanchang Technology, and promised that the net profit achieved in 2015, 2016, and 2017 would not be less than 223 million yuan, 302 million yuan, and 368 million yuan, respectively. At present, Weiming Pharmaceutical has fulfilled its 2015 performance promise: 2015 operating income was 858 million yuan, up 37.48% year on year; net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was 250 million yuan, up 11.22% year on year. Main products: main assets (100% shareholding), unknown biomedical varieties of rat nerve growth factors, have stabilized to occupy the second largest market share in the country, and are expected to regain first place as channels expand and indications increase after listing; Sun Company (holding 60%) Tianjin's unknown recombinant human interferon Anfulon is expected to increase its original market share under the promotion of a new hierarchical sales network; participating companies (26.91%) Beijing Kexing Biotech's main products include China's No. 1 inactivated hepatitis A vaccine “Carrefour”, China's No. 1, global type 2 hepatitis B vaccine Hepatitis combination vaccine “Beil “Laifu”, China's first influenza pandemic vaccine (avian influenza vaccine for human use) “Panerlaif”, the world's first influenza A (H1N1) virus lytic vaccine “Paneraif.1,” and the only domestically produced influenza vaccine “Anerlaif,” the only domestically produced influenza vaccine that does not contain preservatives (thiomersal), and “Yilaifu”, the world's first new drug for preventive use, EV71 vaccine. New products in the future: The new EV71 vaccine Yilaifu, a participating company, is about to be marketed and sold, which is expected to bring new performance growth to the company; the company has submitted a privatization deal to Kexing Holdings. If privatization is successful, the product is expected to continue to be rich; the company's product tiger pain relief peptide is expected to become an analgesic alternative to morphine after passing clinical marketing in the next few years; there are plenty of other research projects, such as pneumococcal vaccine, influenza B encephalitis vaccine, stem cell factor, wolf inhibitory peptide, and growth factor 9 X9 inhibitors, etc., future growth can be expected 。 Expectations for external mergers and acquisitions are strong: Peking University's Weiming Group also has a number of biomedical companies, such as Anhui Weiming (building the world's largest antibody drug development and production base) and Jiangsu Weiming (building the world's largest insulin company). Unknown Pharmaceutical is its only biomedical integration platform, and expectations for future asset injection are strong. Profit forecast and investment advice: buy, for the first time. The company's earnings per share for 2016-2018 are expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.92 yuan, respectively, and the closing price of 25.16 yuan on June 6, 2016 is about 41 times the PE per share corresponding to 2016 earnings per share. Referring to the valuation situation of comparable companies, and considering that the company has a dual main business of “Wanchang headquarters plus unknown pharmaceuticals”, and has a solid layout in the field of biological products, and is fully motivated to expand new products in the future, we gave PE about 52 times that of 2016, with a corresponding target price of 32 yuan. A “buy” rating was given for the first time. Risk warning: new product development and promotion risks, progress of Kexon's privatization, extension progress.

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