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【广证恒生咨询】双成药业点评报告:业绩符合预期,看好公司外延转型

[Guangzhou Securities Hang Seng Consulting] Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical Review report: the performance is in line with expectations and is optimistic about the company's extension transformation.

廣證恆生諮詢 ·  Jan 14, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Subject to the increase in costs, the income growth of the main business exceeded expectations, but the performance growth was weak.

The company expanded its marketing channel, with 15-year revenue of 2.299 billion, an increase of 42.63% over the same period last year, with revenue growth exceeding expectations, but operating profit increased by 70.56 million, down 2.26% from the same period last year. It is mainly due to the following three reasons: 1) the R & D investment has increased, with R & D expenditure of 28.27 million in 2015, and high-tech personnel have been hired to enhance the strength of the R & D team, including FDA certification and technical R & D personnel in the field of peptides, resulting in higher costs. 2) the financial expenses have increased significantly, and the company's extensive mergers and acquisitions and Ningbo tumor base have invested a lot of money, which makes the company's asset-liability ratio exceed 30%, which is 5.3% higher than that of the same period in 2014. the company's financial expense rate has increased from-2.87% to 6.7%. Annual financial expenses exceeded 10 million yuan, compared with-4.63 million yuan in 2014; 3) incentive costs for new employees in 2015.

Australia-Asia CMO business expansion to promote Shuangcheng strategic transformation

The company has acquired 46% stake in Hangzhou Australia and Asia, cut into the preparation CMO business, and the remaining equity is expected to be acquired through a fixed increase. Australia and Asia are mainly focused on the contract manufacturing and production of injections, and invested 50 million to establish a freeze-drying university, the established MES system can real-time monitor the whole production process online to ensure quality, the boss is a craftsman, has more than 20 years of research experience in freeze-drying process, Australia and Asia is the standard setter of domestic freeze-drying process. Australia and Asia have a long-term strategic cooperative relationship with Fudan Fuhua and Green Leaf Pharmaceutical. Although the performance of Australia and Asia was lower than expected in 2015 due to industry changes affecting customer sales, it is expected to expand and extend its new business in the future: 1) to help customers improve the freeze-dried injection process, and seek cooperation with CRO enterprises to extend upstream and export technology. 2) expand international CMO orders, accelerate internationalization, and do international contract manufacturing preparations of European and American standards in CMO enterprises. 3) is beginning to seek cooperation in the freeze-dried production of cosmetics. 4) Australia and Asia are expected to benefit from the landing of the listing licensor system, resulting in an increase in orders.

Establishment of pharmaceutical industry M & A fund to help companies accelerate the landing of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions

Shihezi Shuangcheng, a related party of the company, set up a merger and acquisition fund of about 2 billion with Beijing Qilong Pharmaceutical Company, aiming at upgrading Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical's health strategy, supporting and helping the company to realize related mergers and acquisitions. With the support of a professional investment team and the docking of its resources in the field of medicine and biology, it is expected to accelerate the pace of the company's extension.

Profit forecast and valuation: 46% equity in Australia and Asia is included in equity investment income, and the company's 15-16 year EPS is expected to be 0.16,0.22,0.29 yuan respectively, corresponding to 70.3,48,36 times PE. The new corporate thymus method continues to grow steadily, has a clear international development route, is at a turning point in transformation and development, and maintains a "highly recommended" rating.

Risk hint: single product risk, R & D and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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