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【华泰证券】雅百特:定增布局智能建筑和光伏,开启高增长之路

華泰證券 ·  Mar 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The performance in 2015 was impressive. The metal roof enclosure business benefited from high infrastructure prosperity and continued high growth, and the distributed photovoltaic business became the company's new bright spot. In 2015, the company achieved revenue of 926 million yuan, YOY +86.77%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 266 million yuan, YOY +151.37%; and earnings per share of 1.40 yuan, YOY +56.91%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 1.08 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, and an increase of 20 shares for every 10 shares. The company's gross profit margin in 2015 was 43.24%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points over the previous year. The decline in raw material prices was the main reason for the increase in profitability. Operating cash flow was 30.07 million yuan in 2015 and -66.55 million yuan in 2014, a significant improvement. The acquisition of 90% of Zhongwei Design's shares has greatly enhanced the building's ability to deepen design. The target company promises that in 2016-2018, net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss will not be less than 1 million yuan, 2 million yuan, and 3 million yuan, respectively. The target price of the company's acquisition corresponds to the 2016 valuation of 25X. Extend the company's industrial chain upstream and enhance the overall competitiveness of the company's market. Integrate partners from both sides to enhance the company's business development capabilities. The company plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan in private capital to supplement the flow and issue no more than 38.5 million shares at a price of 26.28 yuan/share. The actual controller, Lu Yong, subscribed for 150 million yuan, Fuxing Ruizhe subscribed for 300 million yuan, Zhongzhi Financial Holdings subscribed for 300 million yuan, Oriental Venture Capital subscribed for 200 million yuan, and Haier Venture Capital subscribed for 50 million yuan. The sales limit period is 36 months, and all of the net capital raised after deducting expenses is used to supplement working capital. After the issuance, the total share ratio held by the actual controller Lu Yong will be diluted from 44.86% to 40.89%, and there will be no change in the company's control. Replenishing working capital has become a necessary measure for the company to maintain rapid development. The company's metal enclosure system and distributed photovoltaic EPC business all require advance capital, and there is a high demand for working capital. Extending from intelligent roofing to intelligent buildings, R&D first, and financial security. Targets for fixed increases have been carefully selected, and the strategic layout of intelligent buildings and distributed photovoltaics has gradually become clear. The space for smart buildings and distributed photovoltaics is huge. We conservatively estimate that intelligent buildings will grow at a rate of 20% in the future, and the market size may reach 250 billion yuan by 2018. China is rich in solar energy resources, and the country's 13th Five-Year Plan is to accelerate the construction of the photovoltaic industry. Government support has increased, and the cumulative installed capacity of rooftop photovoltaics will reach 25GW by 2020. Complementarity between fishing and light is currently still in the early stages of development, and will be based in the eastern region in the future. Valuation and profit forecast: We forecast the company's 2016-18 EPS of 1.59/2.06/2.65 yuan, YOY +49%/30%/29%, and CAGR of 35% for the next three years. Taking into account the company's growth and industry valuation, we believe it is possible to give the company 25 to 30 times PE in '16, a reasonable valuation range of 40-48 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The layout of intelligent buildings falls short of expectations, and the distributed photovoltaic business is not progressing as expected.

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