Guide to this report: Single crystal blades have been successfully sent for inspection. In the future, when they pass certification, they may exceed market expectations. Performance is about to usher in rapid growth and maintain an increase in holding ratings. Investment points: Maintaining an overweight rating. Maintain the company's 2016-2018 EPS forecast of 0.09/0.39/0.58 yuan. Considering that the company's monocrystalline blades have been successfully sent for inspection, future national defense demand and overseas civil aviation demand will be large, maintaining a target price of 37.2 yuan, space of 43%, and maintaining an increase in holdings rating. The discontinuation of production by subsidiaries helps reduce losses. Company announcement: In view of the downturn in the industry, product prices continue to be low, and the inversion between product sales prices and costs is serious. In order to avoid further expansion of losses, Shaanxi Refining Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary, decided to temporarily stop mining and beneficiation production. During the shutdown period, trial production of the molybdenum and rhenium separation project was carried out normally. Previously, the long order price for the same military engineering materials and molybdenum powder from Longmen, Shaanxi was 2,777 yuan/ton, and the contract volume was 2,600 tons/year. Implementation has already been completed. Currently, the price of molybdenum powder on the market is only 800 yuan/ton. The company's production costs are seriously inverted, so choosing to stop production is beneficial to controlling losses. At the same time, the company announced that Q1 net profit is expected to lose 6.35 million yuan. The order placement time is expected to exceed expectations. The company's new product launch conference was successfully held, and the product display was quite optimistic. The market is concerned that the yield rate and certification cycle are too long. Judging from the yield, a certain batch is as high as 96% (23/24); in terms of the certification cycle, since the company's experts all have long work experience in engine factories such as Rolo and are familiar with the certification procedures and key points of downstream customers, we expect the company's products to pass the certification cycle for a short time, and may welcome small-batch orders as soon as the fourth quarter, which will exceed market expectations. The company's current single-line production capacity is designed to be 10,000 monocrystals per year and 80,000 polycrystals/year. Production is expected to expand to two lines by the end of 2016. We believe this also sends a signal that orders will arrive at an accelerated pace. Catalyst: Order for monocrystalline blades landed. Risk warning: The risk of an order not being able to be fulfilled.
【国泰君安】炼石有色:停产减亏,订单落地或超预期
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