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【国海证券】湖南发展深度报告:布局康复领域,前景持续向好

國海證券 ·  Nov 24, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company's main hydropower business has stable performance. The company's installed capacity has reached 220,000 kilowatts. By the end of September, the company had achieved operating income of 213 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.07%. The company's incoming water and electricity volume decreased slightly compared to last year, a year-on-year decrease of 11.10%, which directly led to an overall reduction in operating income. Net profit was 114 million yuan, a negative increase of 29.01% over the previous year, and net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 114 million yuan, an increase of 28.93% over the previous year. The overall performance of the company's main business is relatively stable. Lay out the field of rehabilitation and create a “Xiangya model”. Acquire shares and indirectly hold 49% of the shares in Xiangya Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital to build a platform for the rehabilitation medical industry. By connecting with the Xiangya Hospital and undertaking government purchases, the Xiangya Pok Oi Hospital solved the problem of early establishment of the disease source, solved the scarcity of doctors' resources through the trusteeship of the Xiangya Hospital, and adopted an asset-light model of leasing properties to quickly recover investment capital. The “Xiangya model” has unique advantages. The market space in Changsha is extremely valuable. The company plans to build a new flagship store-style rehabilitation hospital in Changsha, taking advantage of the city's good rehabilitation medical policies and the huge number of patients referred to the Changsha General Hospital. Currently, Xiangya Hospital only charges fixed brand fees and trusteeship fees for Changsha Pok Oi Hospital every year, and charges referral fees for referred patients. The number of recovered patients currently handled by Changsha Pok Oi from Xiangya is less than 1/5 of its neurosurgery, orthopedics, and spinal surgery patients. Defining a good mechanism of interest with Xiangya will be able to expand the number of referrals. The Changsha region has implemented a single-case package settlement for inpatient medical expenses for the initial rehabilitation treatment of five diseases, including stroke (stroke), with an out-of-pocket payment ratio of 10% to 15%. Implementing a package management system can greatly save patients' expenses, ease payment pressure, release rehabilitation medical demand, and expand the rehabilitation medical market in Changsha. The “Xiangya Model” is expected to be replicated throughout the province. The company plans to lay out comprehensive rehabilitation hospitals in mainland Hunan Province within 3-5 years. Director Zhou Jianglin's rehabilitation industry resources, Xiangya Hospital brand endorsement, and state-owned holding background resources form the unique advantages of the “Xiangya Model”, which is a strong guarantee for the success of the promotion of the “Xiangya Model” throughout Hunan Province. The Xiangxi and Changde Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospitals are expected to open within this year. The development prospects of the rehabilitation industry continue to improve. Rehabilitation programs have begun to be continuously included in the scope of medical insurance coverage, which will release the need for rehabilitation; eliminating the use of medicinal medicine and implementing multiple practices will show the value of rehabilitation medical treatment and increase the mobility of doctors' resources, alleviate the shortage of rehabilitation personnel, and greatly alleviate supply-side difficulties; medical insurance fee control and hierarchical diagnosis and treatment will improve the rehabilitation ecological environment; and changes in the disease spectrum brought about by population aging will spawn rehabilitation needs. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. The company's main hydropower business operates stably and has abundant cash flow. The environment of the rehabilitation medical industry continues to improve, and the rapid growth opportunities for the industry brought about by the expansion of medical insurance payment scope expectations, medical insurance fee control, hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, and population aging, the “Xiangya Model” of the Changsha Pok Oi Rehabilitation Hospital has solved the problems that are critical to the survival of rehabilitation hospitals, the problems of patient sources and medical resources, and has adopted a leased property asset-based model, so the recovery cycle is short. At the same time, the “Xiangya Model” is replicative. The company leverages Director Zhou Jianglin's industry resources plus the company's state-owned holding background, and the company's unique superior resources formed by the Xiangya Hospital brand endorsement to form a strong guarantee for the successful promotion of the “Xiangya Model” in Hunan. Optimistic about the future development of the company's rehabilitation sector layout, we expect the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.35 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.44 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-earnings ratio valuations are 61 times, 54 times, and 49 times, respectively. For the first time, coverage is given a “buy” level. Risk warning: 1) The development of the rehabilitation medical industry falls short of expectations; 2) the rehabilitation hospital construction project is not progressing as expected; 3) the continuing cooperation with Xiangya Hospital is uncertain; 4) the performance of the hydropower business is uncertain; 5) the business model is not replicable.

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