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【中信建投证券】天宸股份:禀赋夯实估值,期待转型提速

中信建投證券 ·  Apr 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Going to the war lightly, the transformation demands are clear: Tianchen Co., Ltd. is a listed company whose main business is real estate development and management, property investment, taxi operation, and equity investment. Due to lack of land reserves and capital, the main business has basically stagnated since 2011, and the search for core industries and competitiveness has become a problem that needs to be focused on solving. The company's equity investment has increased in recent years, and Ruiyi Pharmaceutical, which it invests in, has been listed on the new third board. In April 2015, the board of directors agreed to establish a new investment management department for the company and initiated a major asset restructuring on September 1, 2015. Although the final restructuring was not successful, it also highlighted the company's urgent demand for strategic transformation. By the end of the third quarter, the company had $395 million in cash, no interest-bearing liabilities, and a balance ratio of only 22%. It has good potential for transformation. The commitment not to restructure for six months is expected to be lifted in June. We are still looking forward to the company's new transformation and expansion in the future. Management team changes inject new vitality: In November 2015, the company hired Cheonan China executive Zhang Zhenpin as the new general manager, and introduced investment management department managers, adding fresh blood to the company. We believe that the renewal of the management team is expected to accelerate the company's two key directions: the relevant construction team is gradually being improved, which will help revitalize the company's existing resources, and the new team's international perspective is also expected to introduce cooperation resources from different agencies into the project. On the other hand, the establishment of the company's investment management department and the improvement of personnel will also bring the company resources for future transformation and seek new profit growth points. Core resources are yet to be reassessed to create a double margin of safety: the company's core resources include land in Minhang District and shares in Greenland Holdings, with a total value of about 8 billion dollars. In the context of assets such as Ruiyi Technology, it has already supported the company's current market value. The ban on Greenland shares is expected to be lifted in July, providing potential cash support for the company's future transformation and upgrading. In addition, the company was listed by Guohua Life Insurance from July to August 2015, increasing the company's shares by a total of 15%. Since then, the majority shareholders have continued to increase their holdings since July. According to our estimates, both parties' increased holdings are close to current prices, providing a margin of safety for the company's current prices. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's EPS for 15-16 to be 0.14 and 0.17 yuan respectively, covering the first time, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating

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