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【中信建投证券】群兴玩具:收购三洲核能,进军核电军工行业

中信建投證券 ·  Dec 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The incident company announced that it plans to issue a total of 176 million shares to Sanzhou Special Administration, China Nuclear Power Institute, and Huaxia Life Insurance at 909 yuan/share to buy 100% of its shares in Sichuan Sanzhouchuan Chemical Nuclear Energy Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd., at a price of 1.6 billion yuan; at the same time, it plans to raise 11.97 yuan/share to Sanzhou Special Administration, CGN Capital, China Nuclear Power Company, Tibet Guanghe National Energy, Yongtu Wotong, Beijia Kailong, and Xinhe Jingcheng to raise 814 million yuan of supporting capital for Sanzhou Nuclear Energy Advanced manufacturing and production technology transformation and construction projects for key components for third-generation nuclear energy, Intermediary fees related to this transaction are paid, and the remaining portion is used to supplement the listed company's working capital. Briefly, the macroeconomic economy is dragging down performance, and the profitability of Qunxing's main business has declined. Qunxing Toys specializes in R&D, design, production and sales of electronic electric toys. The products mainly include five major series, including strollers, computer learning machines, electric cars, baby toys, and toy phones. Affected by factors such as the downturn in the economic cycle, the appreciation of the RMB, and the rise in raw materials and labor costs, the company achieved operating income of 5.01 million, 404 million yuan, and 279 million yuan respectively in the three quarters of 2013-2015, net profit of 235.876 million, 14.6709 million and 20.647 million yuan, and the company's profitability declined. The acquisition of Sanzhou Nuclear Energy is expected to be driven by two main businesses. Sanzhou Nuclear Energy is the main supplier of domestic nuclear power pipelines, and the only qualified supplier of military pipelines in China. We believe that relying on the rapid development of the nuclear industry and the good qualifications of the three cores, the acquisition of Sanzhou to build the company's second main business is expected to become a new driving force for the company's performance: (1) The rapid development of the nuclear power market: From 2015 to September 2015, China's nuclear power accounted for about 3.0% of the country's total power generation. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” plan for nuclear power in 2020, the share of nuclear power generation will increase to 8%-10%, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 120-150 million kilowatts. to In 2020, China will build a new nuclear power assembly machine with a capacity of 40 GW. Based on an investment of 13,000 yuan/KW per unit of nuclear power plant, the total investment in nuclear power construction will exceed 104 billion yuan per year. Based on the calculation of 50% of the investment in nuclear power equipment, the average annual demand for nuclear power equipment will exceed 52 billion yuan. (2) System layout of the entire industry chain, supported by the three major nuclear power giants: Sanzhou nuclear energy has excellent quality. Its main products include nuclear power main lines, military main lines, civil pipeline equipment and pipe fittings, and has a whole industry chain system for R&D, design, production and sales. The three-generation nuclear power technology currently developed has made significant progress, which is conducive to long-term subsequent development. At the same time, there are currently only three domestic nuclear power operators: CGN Group, China Nuclear Power Technology Company, and China Nuclear Power Group, and China Nuclear Power Group, and China Nuclear Power Research, which are strategic partners participating in the final increase in nuclear power in Sanzhou, and China Nuclear Power Research, respectively, are subsidiaries of these three major nuclear power giants, bringing natural advantages to Sanzhou Nuclear Energy's subsequent qualification acquisition. (3) Performance promises are strong: Sanzhou Special Management and Huaxia Life promise that Sanzhou Nuclear Energy's 2016-2018 net profit for 2016-2018 will not be less than 121 million yuan, 193 million yuan, and 282 million yuan, respectively, and Sanzhou Nuclear Power's future performance is guaranteed. Investment suggestions: The company's main business has been dragged down by the macroeconomy and profitability has declined, and entering the nuclear power military industry is expected to create a second main business. We expect the company's net profit in 2015 and 2016 to be 15.57 million and 105 million respectively, corresponding EPS to be 0.03 and 0.18 (corresponding to fixed increase and dilution EPS of 0.12), and corresponding PE to 626 and 93 (132 times PE after dilution), first coverage, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.

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