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【国信证券】海王生物:定增即将完成,业绩加速改善

國信證券 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The deduction of 36.15 million yuan was not returned to the mother, an increase of 41.9% over the previous year, in line with expectations. The company reported revenue of 3.13 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 17% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 39.35 million yuan, an increase of 42.9% over the previous year, deducting non-net profit of 36.15 million yuan, an increase of 41.9% over the previous year, in line with expectations. The pharmaceutical business continues to expand, performance is improving at an accelerated pace, and completion of equity incentives can be expected. We expect the revenue growth reported by the company for the first quarter of '16 to be mainly due to the continued expansion of the size of commercial companies, while the increase in net profit was faster than the increase in revenue. The main reason is that loss-making industrial assets have not been divested in the same period last year and the improvement in the gross margin of the pharmaceutical commercial business. At the same time, the company predicts net profit for the first half of 2016 is 9924-126.81 million yuan, an increase of 80%-130% over the previous year. In addition to the above, the main reasons include the reduction in financial expenses of the company's bank loans after setting an increase of 3 billion dollars to the controlling shareholders. The estimated reduction in expenses is between 10 and 15 million. Regardless of the impact of the reduction in interest expenses, the company's main business net profit increased by about 70-75%, showing a trend of accelerated improvement from quarter to quarter, in line with our previous expectations for the rapid growth of the company's main pharmaceutical business. The full quota increase for the majority shareholders is about to be completed, and repayment has brought about an increase in profits. The majority shareholders received approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission on January 13, 2016 to fully participate in the fixed increase of 3 billion yuan at a fixed price increase of 9.8 yuan, which is close to the implementation deadline. The capital after the fixed increase will be mainly used to repay bank loans, reduce the company's balance ratio, and increase the level of profit. It is expected that interest expenses will be saved between 1.2 and 130 million yuan in 2016, and the financial cost savings effect will be concentrated in the second half of 2016. Risk warning: fixed growth is lower than expected, GPO extension is lower than expected, accounts receivable accumulation risk, and commercial business expansion is lower than expected. The only target of the corporate version of the “Sanming Model” is to accelerate performance improvement and maintain the “buy” rating. The company's performance in 2016 showed quarterly improvements. In the context of the centralization of the pharmaceutical distribution industry, the company promoted commercial expansion outside of the province with the advantages of intensification and operational efficiency, while within Shandong Province, emphasis was placed on improving management and expanding high-margin businesses such as distribution of equipment and consumables to increase profits. At the same time, the company is currently the only target of the corporate version of the “Sanming Model”. GPO style extension is expected to once again innovate the company's operating model, increasing the company's internal profit value while also increasing the company's valuation. Maintaining the previous profit forecast, the EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.53/0.88/0.98 yuan, corresponding to PE34x/20x/18x, a year-on-year increase of -15%/64%/12%, maintaining purchases.

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