Incident: Changes in the company's stock price. The controlling shareholder said that the company did not issue a stock price change announcement for the company's major asset restructuring plan on January 5. After verifying with management, the production and operation activities of the company and its holding subsidiaries were all normal; after written consultation with the controlling shareholder SAIC Motor Group, up to now, the controlling shareholder has not carried out major asset restructuring or other major matters relating to the company. If the company is valued according to segments, the stock price still has a certain margin of safety, we believe that the company can consider segmented valuation: the supercharger business is in a stage of rapid improvement, and the PEG valuation method can be used for the company's shareholding company Hoshige supercharger, and the PB valuation method can be used for the rest of the assets. 1. The net profit of Lingzhong Turbocharger was 205 million yuan in 2014 and 140 million yuan in the first half of 2015. We estimate that the net profit for the full year of 2015 was 350 million yuan, and the compound growth rate for the year 16 and 17 was 50%. Based on the closing price on January 4, the average PEG value of Shenwan Auto Parts listed companies is 2.61 times, and the median is 1.99 times. According to the 1x PEG valuation, the reasonable value of 40% of the shares of the Ryoheavy supercharger is about 7 billion yuan. 2. The company's reported net assets in 2015 were 3.465 billion yuan. Excluding long-term equity investment of 173 million yuan in Ryojung superchargers, it was 3.292 billion yuan. The average PB value of listed companies in Shenwan's auto parts industry is 7.08 times, and the median is 5.54 times. The average PB of core parts companies similar to the company's business, Weichai Power, Yunnei Power, Dongan Power, and parts companies under the same large group, Huayu Auto, FAW Fuwei, and Fuao shares is 1.88 times. Based on PB 1.5 times, the reasonable value of the company's assets other than Lingzhong superchargers is about 4.94 billion yuan. The total value of the two units is about 11.94 billion yuan, while the total market value of the company corresponding to the closing price on January 5 was 15.45 billion yuan. SAIC Motor Group is actively seeking transformation. The company is a small company under a large group. SAIC Motor Group plans to transform emerging fields such as new energy, fuel cells, intelligent driving, the Internet of Vehicles, automobile e-commerce, automobile big data, and auto finance through fixed increases. As a small company under a large group, the company's original medium and heavy diesel engine business has encountered a bottleneck, and the transformation of the group is expected to bring positive changes to the company. The investment proposal does not take into account the company's transformation. We estimate that the company's EPS for 15-17 was 0.09 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.29 yuan. The performance growth mainly benefited from the sharp increase in investment income brought about by the rapid increase in the penetration rate of passenger car superchargers, and it is not ruled out that the company may transform and maintain a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that sales of new products have fallen short of expectations; macroeconomic sentiment has declined; and corporate transformation has fallen short of expectations.
【广发证券】上柴股份:公司有转型预期
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