The ownership structure is stable, the strategic transformation is accelerated, the business is adjusted deeply, and the performance is bottomed out. (1) the company's ownership structure is stable: Shengda Forestry's largest shareholder Shengda Group holds 28.67%, which is much higher than the second largest shareholder (4.66%); (2) peeling off non-performing assets, performance bottomed out: the company spun off most of its fibreboard business in 2014, and from January to September 2015, its net profit was 9.8 million, an increase of 2.56% over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin of each product generally increased.
Promote everyone's living strategy, "integration + Internet + smart home" three rounds side by side. (1) the concentration of the home market has increased, and customization, intelligence and Internet have led the development: the industry concentration of the furniture market with a total size of up to 1.2 trillion is still increasing, and leading enterprises will benefit; while the penetration rate of customized homes will increase, Internet applications and smart homes will lead the industry trend. (2) the company promotes everyone's strategic landing with "integration + Internet + smart home": first, it has set up a "Home Business Department" to better complete the resource integration from upstream resources to product research and development, from management to sales channels; second, to integrate online and offline channels with "Internet +" Third, it is planned to link the decoration and home appliance industries to provide integrated smart home services to achieve intelligent control, intelligent storage and intelligent scenes; cooperate with Shannan Datong, Shengshi Jiahui and natural person Wei Bo to initiate the establishment of intelligent Internet home industry M & A fund to promote the transformation and upgrading of household business.
The LNG industry has a bright future and is at the best time for M & An integration. (1) oversupply, LNG price bottom stable: in 2015, the world added a large number of LNG capacity, the oversupply situation is further serious, and the LNG price is closely related to oil prices, and the low oil prices also drag it down. (2) the degree of dependence on domestic LNG imports has increased, and there is broad room for revenue policy to promote: from January to October 2015, China's external dependence on natural gas rose to 31.86%. Although the decline of oil prices and the price advantage of natural gas relative to oil products have weakened after the gas price reform, the strong support of policies and the bottoming rebound of international oil prices will still promote the improvement of the domestic natural gas market. (3) in-depth adjustment of the industry, the birth of M & An opportunities: domestic LNG upstream plate, enterprise enthusiasm for new projects decreased, while a number of operational or under construction LNG project operators expressed their intention to transfer, at this time the project premium level is low, in a better opportunity for acquisition; on the other hand, in the downstream LNG transportation plate, the number of enterprises building separate stations is reduced, and the proportion of purchasing approved projects or co-construction with others increases.
The new energy strategy has been accelerated and the layout of the whole industry chain has been developed. (1) upstream area: the company plans to build a clean energy plant with an annual capacity of 400000 tons in Pengshan County, a clean energy project with an annual capacity of 400000 tons in Zhenyuan, Guizhou Province, and acquire 51% equity in three subsidiaries of Shaanxi Luyuan. Among them, the 200000-ton high-efficiency liquid metal cutting gas plants of Shanxi Yulin Jinyuan and Mizhi Lvyuan have been put into operation. (2) Middle reaches: China Sea Natural Gas in Aba Prefecture and China Sea in Sichuan, etc., are committed to establishing long-term and stable supply channels; (3) downstream areas: subsidiaries Litang China Sea, Danba China Sea, Blackwater Zhonghai, etc., are responsible for the construction of urban gas projects, while Jinyuan Logistics under Shaanxi Luyuan invests and operates multiple LNG/CNG filling stations in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Hebei and other places. (4) to set up a special industrial fund to speed up the extension: set up a clean energy industry fund of no more than 2 billion with investment from Shannan Dali and Shenzhen New Austria to accelerate the extension development of the new energy field.
Investment advice: we believe that the company's household business is expected to stabilize upward, and with the future international oil prices driving up LNG prices, the new industry has great potential for growth. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2015 to 2016 is 15.87 million yuan and 105 million yuan, and the EPS is 0.03,0.16 yuan (0.13 yuan after dilution), corresponding to the current price PE of 376,71 (87 times diluted). The company set up M & A funds to accelerate extension, and the proposed employee stock ownership plan unifies upper and lower interests, demonstrates development confidence, covers for the first time, and gives an "overweight" rating.
Risk factors: fierce competition in the household industry leads to lower-than-expected integration and development, low natural gas prices and poor promotion of new energy business.
