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【招商证券】东莞控股:高速业绩稳健,看好大金融转型

招商證券 ·  Apr 24, 2016 00:00  · Researches

1. The rapid recovery of the main business and the explosion of investment income led to a significant year-on-year increase in performance. In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,097 million yuan (+17.21%), operating costs of 393 million yuan (+30.98%), and gross profit of 545 million yuan (+12.6%). Management expenses are 60 million yuan (+11.94%), financial expenses are 47 million yuan (-22.18%), and investment income is 425 million yuan (+73.13%), of which investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures is 346 million yuan (+96.67%). The rapid recovery of the main business and the explosion of investment income led to a significant year-on-year increase in the company's performance. 2. The quality of road production is high, and the growth rate is faster than the industry average. The company's road production includes the first and second phase of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway, the Dongcheng section of Phase III, and the Longlin Expressway, and is also entrusted with the management of the Shijie section of Phase III of the Guanshen Expressway, with a total mileage of about 61.26 kilometers. The Guan-Shenzhen Expressway is located in the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta. It is an important part of the Pearl River Delta Ring Road in Guangdong Province, and has become an important fast track connecting Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen. The company also participated in 11.11% of Humen Bridge's shares (including investment income). During the reporting period, the company achieved toll revenue of 934 million yuan, an increase of 8.53% over the previous year. Among them, the Longlin Expressway achieved revenue of 68.43 million yuan (+2.35%), the Dongcheng section of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway Phase III (+13.86%), and 803.6 million yuan (+8.7%) for the first and second phases of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway. Influenced by favorable factors such as the increase in the number of private cars owned and the implementation of evasion control measures, mixed traffic on the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Expressway achieved a 10.91% increase in mixed traffic on the entire Guan-Shenzhen Expressway. However, due to the reclassification of national standard models and full weighted charges for trucks, some models that originally implemented the fee standards for Class 2, 3, and 4 vehicles were reclassified and adjusted to Class 1 and 5 vehicles. During the reporting period, the company's Class 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 vehicles increased 17.13% and 0.6% year on year, down 16.9%, down 11.2%, and increased 2.3%, causing the company's toll revenue growth rate to be lower than the growth rate of traffic traffic. 3. The financial leasing business is growing rapidly. Rongtong Leasing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, mainly engages in financial leasing business in the fields of transportation, infrastructure, buses, ports and terminals, and manufacturing enterprises in the form of direct leasing, sales and leaseback. During the reporting period, Rongtong Leasing continued to enrich the industry and nature of leasing customers and strengthen business risk prevention and control. Throughout 2015, the amount of Rongtong Leasing's contracted leasing business increased 3.9 times from the 500 million yuan in 2014 to 2.6 billion yuan, and completed a total capital investment of 2.4 billion yuan. During the reporting period, Rongtong Leasing achieved operating income of 138 million yuan, operating profit of 68.5546 million yuan, and net profit of 45.7712 million yuan, respectively, year-on-year increases of 137.88%, 33.84%, and 26.19%. 4. Dongguan Securities contributed most of the investment income. Benefiting from the activity of the securities market, Dongguan Securities achieved operating income of 3.766 billion yuan and net profit of 1,453 billion yuan in 2015, respectively, an increase of 107.83% and 133.10% over the previous year, and contributed 283 million yuan in investment income, accounting for 67% of the company's investment income. The company's other investment units - Humen Bridge, Dongguan Trust, etc. - also continued to maintain a steady level of growth. The company's investment income during the reporting period reached 425 million yuan, an increase of 73.13% over the previous year, accounting for 52.07% of the company's annual net profit. 5. Increase the number of nested employee stock ownership plans, and the reform of state-owned enterprises is progressing steadily. In order to make the financial leasing and highway business the twin engines of the company's rapid development in the future, the company plans to increase the capital of Rongtong Leasing by 1.4 billion yuan by privately issuing additional shares. On February 2, 2016, the Development and Review Committee of the Securities Regulatory Commission approved the company's application for non-public offering, and is currently awaiting review approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission. The company uses non-public offerings to implement a shareholding plan for 80 million employees, so that all employees can share the results of the company's development. Furthermore, the company is the only state-owned listed company in Dongguan, and the top three shareholders of the Dongguan Municipal Assets Administration Commission hold a total of about 69% of the shares. Dongguan Holdings is one of the important financial service platforms for the development strategy of the Dongguan Municipal Government to “accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading and achieve a high level of rise”. Dongguan released the first draft of the “Dongguan State-owned Enterprise Reform and Development (2014-2020) Plan Research Report” in 2014, identifying Dongguan Holdings as the listing platform for state-owned enterprise reform. Luqiao Corporation, the majority shareholder of the company, has also been included in the priority target of state-owned enterprise reform by the Dongguan State Assets Administration Commission, and changed its name to Dongguan Transportation Investment Group Co., Ltd. on April 8, 2015, to complete corporate restructuring. 6. Investment strategy. We forecast the company's EPS for 16-18 to be 0.70, 0.81, and 0.91 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE 14.1X, 12.3X, and 10.9X. The company's main business reversal, financial holding platform, and state-owned enterprise reform are trifectly catalyzed to maintain the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Risk Warning: Macroeconomic Decline Exceeds Expectations

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