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【中投证券】京投银泰:更名京投发展,集团A股唯一资本运作平台值得期待

[CIC Securities] Beijing Investment Yintai: renamed Beijing Investment Development, the group's only A-share capital operation platform is worth looking forward to.

中投證券 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Performance release revenue net profit achieved a big increase. The 15-year revenue of 8.43 billion yuan increased by 142% over the same period last year, and the net profit of 115 million yuan increased by 359% over the same period last year, deducting 44 million yuan of non-net profit (14 years:-340 million yuan). Diluted EPS0.16 yuan is basically in line with expectations (previously estimated: 0.16 yuan). In the main business, the real estate sales carry-over income of 8.12 billion yuan + 159%, and the overall gross profit margin of 26.5% reduced lpc. The Yuefu, Yuefu, and new mileage projects have settled 4 billion yuan, 2.4 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan respectively, with a gross profit margin of 17% to 39%. The cost-sharing factor makes the gross profit margin of each project not high, but there is much room for improvement in some projects in the future, such as the Imperial Palace. The operating profit of the company is 980 million, the net profit is 620 million, and the net profit is only 120 million yuan: 1) the settlement project in Beijing is mainly cooperative development and the rights and interests of cooperation with major shareholders are only 51%. The profit and loss of minority shareholders is as high as 500 million yuan: 2) the loss of 100% of the price is borne by the listed company. In this period, the provision for the impairment of the Ordos project is 54 million yuan, for its unrecognized interest income of 121 million yuan, the total profit is reduced by 175 million yuan, and the price reduction provision for the Wuxi Hongyi project is 157 million yuan. In 16, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 7.61 billion yuan, 16Q1 has achieved 1 billion yuan + 1718%, return to the mother net profit of 36 million yuan (15 years:-66 million yuan). By the end of March, the advance payment was 5.7 billion yuan, basically locking in 16 achievements. According to the 15-year plan, 7.2 billion yuan was actually overfulfilled by 16%, and it is expected that it will still be over-fulfilled in 16 years.

The development strategy with Beijing as the center and relying on rail transit is clear, and high performance will be maintained in the short term.

Sales in 13-15 years were 2.4 billion yuan, 7.1 billion yuan and 9.8 billion yuan, respectively, representing a compound growth rate of 114% in three years. The company plans to sell 6.2 billion yuan in 16 years, and has signed a contract of 1.66 billion yuan in the first three months compared with the same period last year. In 2016, the company plans to start 255000 new projects and complete 375000, which is 74 per cent of the actual 15-year completion. The existing projects have not sold more than 2 million square meters of construction area (including indemnificatory apartment, excluding Ordos), about 1.78 million square meters of projects in Beijing, with a total value of about 40 billion yuan. Successive sales and settlement are expected to maintain the steady growth of the company's performance. Relying on the technical barriers of building houses above the major shareholder Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. and the subway depot, there will be a lot of space for the project in the Beijing subway extension in the future.

Renamed "Beijing Investment Development", the group's only A-share capital operation platform is worth looking forward to. After removing the Yintai Group (the remaining shares of the Yintai Group are only 4.05%, and the rest are transferred to Mr. Cheng Shaoliang's current holding of 20.78% and rescinding the relationship of concerted actors), the majority shareholder Jingtou Group holds 31% of the shares after increasing its shareholding, and plans to change its name to "Jingtou Development". Beijing Investment Group now undertakes the functions of investment and financing, preliminary planning, asset management, capital operation and related resources development and management of Beijing rail transit and other infrastructure projects, and does not rule out continued involvement in subway construction and operation in the future. By the end of 2014, the total assets were 380.6 billion yuan and the net assets were 125.5 billion yuan. Since its establishment in 2003, relying on the main investment and financing of rail transit and other infrastructure projects, the strategic development pattern of "one body and two wings" has been gradually constructed, that is, taking the investment and financing business of rail transit and other government projects under construction as the main body, taking resource development and equity investment as the "two wings", expanding the layout of equity investment in rail transit industry and speeding up the construction of equity investment pattern in the whole industry chain of rail transit.

The company also integrates various operating resources of rail transit through business restructuring to form an asset management model for the integration and development of resources. At present, the "two wings" include: 1) resource development, on the one hand, land resource development, including first-level land development, property development and site integration, etc.; on the other hand, asset management and development, including adjacent traversing business, civil communication projects, self-owned property management, etc. 2) Equity investment, successful investment in rail transit-related industrial projects and similar financial industries, with a total equity investment of 2.947 billion yuan (with Beijing Investment Company as the main investment) by 2014, managing a total of 23 holding companies. including 6 wholly-owned and holding companies (including 1 overseas listed company) and 17 participating companies (including 5 domestic listed companies and 4 overseas listed companies) Investment projects include cornerstone leasing, municipal roads and bridges, Beijing Investment Hong Kong, CITIC Limited, Seven Star Electronics and so on. As the group's only A-share listing platform, it is expected to continue to increase support for listed companies in order to better develop the "one body and two wings" strategy.

Financing and debt are expected to continue to improve. The overall average financing cost in 15 years is 9.35% (14 years: 9.62%). The borrowing of major shareholders is one of the main sources, and the cost of project financing is on the high side. Costs are expected to continue to decline as the central bank cuts interest rates, releases corporate performance, reduces financing risk premiums and makes better use of open market financing. Corporate bonds have been issued of 779 million yuan with a three-year interest rate of 4.8%. It is planned to issue another 2 billion private bonds in 16 years, and a three-year interest rate of 1 billion yuan has been issued at 5.24%. The asset-liability ratio was 70% at the end of 15 years, 69% at the end of March 16, and the net debt ratio dropped to 501% from 627% in 14 years, which is expected to continue to improve.

The market capitalization of the company is only about 7 billion and the quality is good. It is worth looking forward to changing its name to "Beijing Investment Development" or becoming the capital operation platform of A shares of the major shareholder Beijing Investment Group. The investment value and long-term development have been recognized by risk, and it is still possible to continue to attract stable strategic investors, which is worth paying attention to. Forecast company 16-18eps0.35, 0.48,0.61 yuan, RNAV12 yuan per share, give RNAV parity target price 12 yuan, maintain the "highly recommended" rating.

Risk hints: major shareholders' support for listed companies is not as expected; high debt and high financing costs.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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