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【恒泰证券】德宏股份:新股投资参考

[Hengtai Securities] Dehong shares: reference for new stock investment

恆投證券 ·  Mar 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Company profile:

The company's main business is the research and development, production, sales and related technical services of vehicle alternators. After years of operation and development, the company has formed a comprehensive advantage in the commercial vehicle matching generator market, and is in a leading position in the domestic industry in terms of scale and technology. The company is the director of China Internal Combustion engine Industry Association, the chairman of Motor and Electrical Appliances Branch, and the vice chairman of Motor and Electrical Appliances Committee of China Automobile Industry Association. The company's products are mainly located in the middle and high-end market, with 8 series of more than 300 major models, is one of the richest product lines of automotive alternators in China.

The actual control of the company is Zhang Hongbao and Zhang Yuanyuan, with a total shareholding ratio of 66.12%.

The current situation and prospect of the industry the commercial vehicle market will continue to develop steadily. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2014, road transport completed 33.43 billion tons of goods, accounting for 77.38% of the total freight volume, and completed passenger transport volume of 22.07 billion, accounting for 86.35% of the total domestic passenger transport. At present, the passenger and freight volume undertaken by China's road transportation still accounts for most of the total domestic passenger and freight volume. The strategic planning of accelerating the development of modern logistics industry and improving the modern logistics service system put forward by the State Council in 2014 in the medium-and long-term Plan for the Development of Logistics Industry (2014-2020) involves the goal of urban logistics construction, it will also have a positive impact on the growth of commercial vehicles.

The competitiveness of independent brand enterprises has been gradually improved. The competition between China's internal combustion engine motor and electrical appliance enterprises and the strong players of other countries in the world has continued in our country for many years. By competing and learning the advanced technology, management and management ideas brought by foreign counterparts, the strength of independent brand enterprises has been greatly improved. Competitiveness continues to improve. Some independent brand enterprises have gradually occupied an important position in the matching market of commercial vehicles, and have begun to infiltrate into the passenger vehicle supporting market dominated by joint venture brands.

Highlights of the company:

Have first-mover advantage and customer base. The company is one of the earliest enterprises engaged in the production of vehicle alternator in China. At present, the company has established a stable cooperative relationship with major domestic engine and vehicle manufacturers, and has become the exclusive or major supplier of many engine factories. At present, the company's customers include Jiangling Motor, Fukuda Cummins and Deutsche FAW, etc., and indirectly provide support for international well-known automobile brand manufacturers such as Daimler Group, Iveco Automobile, Germany Man and so on.

It has certain advantages in technology. The company has many years of experience in R & D and manufacturing of automotive alternators, and has been involved in the design and development of all kinds of new and improved engine generators for its customers since 2003, and has accumulated rich experience in design and manufacturing. a number of design, development and process professionals in the field of automotive alternator have been nurtured. At present, the company has fully possessed the ability of synchronous design and development with the engine factory. Up to now, the company has independent intellectual property rights of many key technologies in the field of vehicle alternator, including 3 invention patents, 52 utility model patents and 2 design patents.

Fund-raising project

1. It is proposed to raise 190 million yuan to be used for the production project of increasing the annual production of 1 million automobile alternators.

2. It is proposed to raise 34 million yuan for the annual production project of rectifier bridge for automotive generators, which is a key electronic product of 1.5 million automotive generators.

Main potential risks

The risk of falling product prices. As the downstream automobile manufacturers and machinery manufacturers are facing relatively sufficient market competition, they have to reevaluate and adjust the market price of their products in stages. In order to ensure profit margins, automobile manufacturers and machinery manufacturers usually require their suppliers to adjust prices accordingly, thus forcing the industry in the whole industry chain to adjust sequentially. Therefore, there is a risk that the price of the company's vehicle alternator products will be forced to be reduced, thus adversely affecting the company's operating performance.

Valuation

As of March 25, 2016, the average static price-to-earnings ratio for the latest month released by the CSI was 28.69 times that of the issuer's electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2015 and 2016 are 0.69 yuan and 0.76 yuan respectively, combined with the current market situation, combined with the company's issue price of 13.50 yuan (corresponding to the diluted price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 times 2014), the initial pressure is expected to be 40 yuan-44 yuan.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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