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【国泰君安】浔兴股份2015年年报点评:主业停滞,受益CBA商业化进程加快

國泰君安 ·  Apr 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Maintain an “overweight” rating. The company's 2015 performance was slightly lower than previous expectations. We lowered the 2016-17 EPS forecast to 0.23/0.26 yuan (previously 0.27/0.31 yuan), and we expect the garment accessories industry to grow by about 5-10% in the future. Referring to leading companies in transformation, and considering that Xunxing Men's Basketball Club's progress in injecting listed companies is expected to exceed market expectations and give a valuation premium, maintaining a target price of 15.0 yuan, corresponding to 65.2 times PE in 2016, and an increase in holdings ratings. The decline in export revenue has led to a decline in performance, and cost control has led to an increase in gross margin. 1) In 2015, revenue was 1,041 million yuan (-0.77%), and net profit was 72 million yuan (-7.97%), lower than previous expectations (1,055/ 82 million yuan, respectively). 2) The company's domestic sales revenue was basically the same in 2015. Affected by the international economic situation, export revenue fell 5.25%. The revenue of strip zippers, which account for 60% of the main products, fell -6.79%, which affected the performance. 3) The cost was properly controlled, and the gross margin of the main business increased by 0.51 pct over the same period last year. 4) The financial structure was optimized, and the financial cost rate was drastically reduced by 26.9 pct by raising capital to repay loans. 5) It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan for every 10 shares. Negotiations between the China Professional League and the Basketball Association have forced the CBA reform to speed up. On April 19, 2016, the China Professional League held negotiations with the Basketball Association. Although negotiations are at an impasse, the CBA reform process has objectively been accelerated, and it is expected that a CBA company preparation team will be set up in late April. The NBL is testing the waters first. It is expected that the commercialization of the CBA will make steady progress, and the club injection progress is expected to exceed market expectations. 1) On April 21, 2016, the NBL reform took precedence and is expected to become a benchmark for the development of the basketball industry. 2) It is anticipated that the club's profits will only be injected. The CBA commercialization process is progressing steadily. Clubs under the group will benefit greatly from CBA commercialization and are expected to turn losses into profits. Risk warning: Xunxing men's basketball team, a subsidiary of the group, fell short of expectations, and the main zipper business continued to deteriorate, etc.

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