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【国泰君安】积成电子2015年年报点评:“四表合一”的综合用电服务商

國泰君安 ·  Apr 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key points of investment: Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company released its annual report. In 2015, it achieved revenue of 1,286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.97%, a year-on-year increase of 11.12%, slightly lower than our expectations; considering the impact of the decline in electricity investment growth on the company's main business, the 2016-18 eps were lowered to 0.50 (↓ 0.29), 0.61 (↓ 0.38), and 0.68 yuan. Due to the decline in the growth rate and valuation of the same industry, the target price was lowered by 50 times PE in 2017, and the target price was lowered to 31 yuan. The power grid bidding channel boom is declining, and off-grid channels are growing rapidly. As power grid companies' investment in power transmission and transformation equipment slowed down, and the company's bid batch and investment share declined. In 2015, the company's power grid tender contract amount was 497 million yuan, a slight decrease over the previous year. The amount of self-signed contracts in various marketing regions exceeded 600 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year. Electricity information collection terminals and substation products grew rapidly. Among them, the contract amount for substation projects increased sharply year on year. The contract amount for energy management products reached nearly 50 million yuan, an increase of 40.6% year on year. The company's power grid automation technology is highly scalable, and it is expected to become a “four tables in one” integrated electricity service provider. Relying on the accumulation of power grid automation for nearly 30 years, the company has now developed a series of applications such as gas SCADA, water control systems, energy management systems, water conservancy information systems, and location information solutions. In terms of water automation, it has successfully developed water markets in important cities such as Wuhan, Chongqing, and Urumqi. The company's smart water meters have entered more than a dozen provincial capital city water companies, ranking among the top market holdings and shares. In terms of gas automation, the automated control system for the Fujian Minqing LNG gasification station, the largest in Asia built by the company, successfully passed the expert group inspection, and the gas automation system had sales of nearly 100 million yuan this year. Risk warning: The construction of coal, oil, electricity and gas sharing mechanisms falls short of the expected risk.

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