Event: when the company released its annual report for 2016, the company realized operating income of 9.664 billion yuan in 2015, down 27.12% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of 188 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 105.90%, equivalent to 0.23 yuan per share. At the same time, the company announced a forecast for the first quarter of 2016, which is expected to return to its parent net profit of 0.61-112 million yuan in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 207%.
Comments:
Non-post-deduction losses were deducted in 2015, and the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2016 exceeded expectations. The company mainly has three industrial chains, one is the chlor-alkali chemical industry chain with PVC paste resin as the leader, the second is the special polyethylene, acrylic acid, acrylate and other new chemical materials industry chain with CPP and DCC as the upstream, and the third is the polyether polyol industry chain of Blue Star Dongda. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, overcapacity of products related to the domestic petrochemical industry chain and declining demand in the downstream market in 2015, after deducting the non-recurrent profit and loss of the company's relocation, the company actually lost about 200 million yuan. In the first quarter of 2016, due to the rebound in crude oil prices and the shutdown of some domestic production capacity, the prices of PVC paste resin, acrylic acid, esters and other petrochemical products picked up, the company is expected to achieve better profits in the first quarter, and the performance forecast is higher than expected.
The price of PVC paste resin has warmed up, and the production capacity is expected to be released after the relocation of the company this year. When the industry was depressed in 2015, the PVC paste resin industry withdrew part of its production capacity, coupled with the rise in crude oil prices since 2016, resulting in higher costs for ethylene production enterprises, so the price of PVC paste resin picked up. The company expects to complete all the relocation work within June this year, and after the completion of the relocation, the company's 200000 tons of PVC paste resin production capacity is expected to be released one after another.
Bluestar Dongda's profit exceeds its performance promise and is expected to contribute to stable profits this year. The major shareholder injected into Blue Star Dongda in 2015, and the main product is polyether polyol. The net profit of Blue Star Dongda in 2015 was 105 million yuan, exceeding the performance promise. Due to the rise in crude oil prices so far this year, coupled with the company's position in the polyether polyol industry, it is expected that it will still be able to contribute stable profits in 2016.
The asset securitization of the controlling shareholder is accelerated, and the company as the only petrochemical platform can be expected in the future. Sinochem, the actual controller of the company, has always been adhering to the principle of capital operation, overseas mergers and acquisitions and the global leading companies in the same industry in the domestic sector, using its professional ability to integrate domestic collaborative assets. through the strategic thinking of securitization through the platform of its listed companies, integrate its assets and speed up the process of securitization. At present, the company is the only listing platform in the petrochemical sector of Sinochem Group Co., Ltd., so there is a large expectation of asset integration.
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the company's operating income from 2016 to 2018 to reach 10.188 billion yuan, 10.912 billion yuan and 11.637 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 5.42%, 7.11% and 6.64% over the same period last year, and its net profit reached 439 million yuan, 275 million yuan and 315 million yuan respectively, an increase of 133.63%,-37.27% and 14.46% over the same period last year, and EPS reached 0.54,0.34 and 0.38 yuan respectively The dynamic PE corresponding to the closing price of 7.20 yuan per share on April 19, 2016 is 13 times, 21 times and 19 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk factors: crude oil prices fell, PVC paste resin and polyether polyols and other products prices fell.
