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【方正证券】深振业A:稳健增长可期,受益国企改革

方正證券 ·  Mar 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company released its 2015 annual report, showing that the revenue for 2015 was 3.65 billion yuan, an increase of 56.9% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%. The basic earnings per share were 0.31 yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets was 9.8%. The dividend plan distributes 1.18 yuan (tax included) for 10 shares. Sales and revenue levels are steady, and repayment and debt repayment capabilities are healthy. Influenced by projects in Boshu in Xi'an and Qichunli in Tianjin, the company's sales performance in 2015 fell short of expectations, with a sales area of 310,000 square meters and an amount of 3.2 billion yuan, which is basically the same as the previous year. The carry-over revenue for the same period was 3.65 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 56.9% over the same period last year. As the company's advantageous regional projects such as Changsha and Nanning enter the market, the focus of the Tianjin and Xi'an markets has revived. It is probable that the company's sales and revenue will continue to grow steadily in 2016. The company's gross profit margin in 2015 was 34.6%, which continued to maintain a high level in the industry (36.6% and 33.2% in the previous two years, respectively); the sales payback rate was as high as 93.4% (97.2% and 99.6% in the previous two years, respectively), indicating the company's excellent cash and project management capabilities. In 2015, the company achieved diversified financing to protect project investment: issued 1.5 billion bonds, optimized the debt structure while saving 225 million yuan in financial expenses; added 2 billion yuan in loans, and obtained 4.65 billion yuan in commercial bill financing and reserve loans of 4.65 billion yuan. At the end of the year, the company's net debt ratio was 74%, and the balance ratio after deduction of pre-sale accounts was 70%, and its solvency was good. Develop advantages to promote cooperation, and investment returns explode. The company's real estate development business has professional advantages, which is a guarantee for the company to successfully promote cooperation between state-owned enterprises and innovate low-cost land acquisition methods. The company's cooperation with Shenzhen Metro Group to develop Jinhui Park has become a pioneering move. Using export construction management and 870 million yuan as a benchmark, it has obtained 70% revenue rights for 227,000 square meters of residences, business apartments and supporting properties, with a saleable value of 4.4 billion yuan. In 2015, the project sold 72,000 square meters and equity sales amounted to 1.41 billion yuan. Investment income has not yet been included. With the intensive completion of projects over the next two years, the company's investment income will drive a sharp increase in profits. The reform of local commercial state-owned enterprises is blowing in the spring breeze. In its work in 2016, the company clearly proposed three major measures to respond to the reform of state-owned enterprises: integrate existing land resources, carry out commercial housing and guaranteed housing construction, strengthen cooperation with municipal state-owned enterprises; establish a governance structure with state-owned holdings, decentralized shareholding by multiple state-owned strategic investors, and core management; and implementing a long-term incentive mechanism for management and key shareholders. We believe that the company is a core real estate development and listing platform directly under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Administration Commission. It has strong main business operation capacity, a high degree of marketization, and moderate holdings by the Shenzhen State Assets Administration Commission (21.9%), making it a regional hot target that gives priority to benefiting from local commercial state-owned enterprise reforms. The company's development is expected to receive full support from Shenzhen, such as directly benefiting from Shenzhen's 400,000 guaranteed housing construction plan during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the integration of municipal enterprise real estate development business cooperation. Maintain a “Highly Recommended” rating. It is estimated that the company's 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.52, 0.63, and 0.65, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 16X, 13X, and 12X, respectively. The company's sales and revenue levels are steady, and its repayment, profit, and solvency are healthy; it is actively exploring diversified and low-cost financing and land acquisition channels, and future performance can be expected. The next 2 years will see an explosion in investment income as the Jinhui Park project cooperated with the Shenzhen Metro has centralized sales and carryover. As a hot target for commercial state-owned enterprise reform in Shenzhen, the company's initiatives such as municipal state-owned enterprise cooperation and equity incentives will receive support from local governments. Maintain the company's “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: Project sales fell short of expectations.

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