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【申万宏源】中海集运年报点评:15年业绩下滑,金融+租赁助力估值回升

申萬宏源 ·  Mar 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Performance is in line with expectations. The company released its 2015 report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 31,861 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.07%, net profit loss of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 377.88%, a year-on-year decline of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5690.20%. The basic EPS in 2015 was -0.2524 yuan, and the weighted average ROE was -12.56%, a decrease of 16.93 percentage points over the previous year. The consolidated transportation market is sluggish, and the decline in freight prices has led to a decline in the main business. The company is mainly engaged in container transportation business. It is the only fully open industry in China's shipping sub-industry, directly facing global competitors. During the reporting period, supply in the centralized transportation industry maintained an increase of more than 5%, but demand was slightly sluggish due to global macroeconomic effects, and it is still difficult to change the pattern where supply exceeds demand in the industry is still difficult to change. Judging from route freight rates, the freight rate index for the European route fell by 32.05% throughout the year, and the US route was relatively strong; the total freight volume completed by the company was 7.8904 million TEU, a decrease of 3.51% over the previous year. Affected by lower freight prices, revenue fell 12.07%. By the end of 2015, the company's consolidated fleet had reached 173 ships, an overall carrying capacity of 889,000 TEU, and received an additional 19,000 TEU of large container ships, in line with the development trend of international large-scale shipbuilding. The sharp decline in performance is due to last year's profit from asset disposal. The company's net profit loss during the reporting period fell 377.88% year on year, and net profit after deducting non-net profit fell 5690.22% year on year. We believe that the sharp decline, for example, is due, on the one hand, to the decline in freight prices this year. The gross margin of consolidated transportation was -4.15%, a decrease of 7.60 percentage points over the previous year; on the other hand, in 2014, the company received a total investment income of 919 million yuan through the sale of three companies, Zhengjin Industrial, Yangshan Storage and Transportation, and Zhonghai Terminal, which included non-recurring profit and loss, while the investment income for 15 years was -212 million. After the restructuring, it will switch to container leasing and financial services. After the merger of COSCO and CNOOC, the CNOOC shipping listing platform will place its shipping business to China Ocean, forming three new core businesses. The first is the leasing industry, which is mainly carried out by Florence, Oriental International, and CNOOC Leasing; the second is the equity investment and financial services sector, which is mainly operated by CNOOC Investment, CNOOC Finance, etc.; the third is the financial sector, which includes Bohai Bank, Shanghai Life Insurance, etc. After the company changed from a cyclical industry to a relatively stable leasing+finance industry, according to historical data, we expect the new business to have a net profit of at least 3 billion dollars for the full year of 2015. Raise profit forecasts and raise purchases. Considering that the change of business to leasing+finance after the restructuring will greatly improve the company's performance, we have raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.30 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.32 yuan (previously 0.04 yuan, 0.08 yuan, 0.09 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE is 15 times, 15 times, and 14 times respectively. The valuation after the restructuring is relatively stable, since it has not yet reflected a certain difference in expectations in the report, it was raised to the buying rating.

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