Increase the holdings of Changyuan Group, the existing business is developing healthily. Since 2014, the company and actors have continued to increase their holdings in Changyuan Group, with a total shareholding of 23.7%. Through resource integration and consultation and communication, it has laid the foundation for the healthy development of the domestic heat-shrinking industry and orderly market competition. The data show that the company's medium and low voltage electric power products have steadily ranked first in the industry in terms of bid volume, bid winning rate and operating performance in 2015.
The total domestic market share of the company's electronic products and Changyuan Group products is more than 80%. Because the industry has higher technical barriers and a higher threshold for capital investment, it is difficult for new entrants to become a climate. Ke Yinghua, an established enterprise in the industry, also has a certain competitiveness, therefore, the industry has formed a tripod situation among the company, Changyuan Group and Zhongke Yinghua.
Expand new business and issue additional wind power. At present, the company has five wind power projects, including four in Shandong and one in Inner Mongolia, with a total installed capacity of 250000 kilowatts, all of which have been approved by the government. Two of the fixed-increase projects have a total installed capacity of about 100000 kilowatts, which are expected to be put into production by June 2016. the project belongs to category III wind zones, with a power generation hour of about 2000 hours and an estimated internal rate of return of about 8%. The remaining three projects must be put into production by the end of 2017 at the latest. Wind power projects are expected to contribute 15.28 million yuan and 42.42 million yuan to net profits in 16 / 17.
The new radiation cross-linked wires are expected to benefit from the increment of new energy vehicles. Because the carrying capacity of new energy vehicles is larger than that of traditional vehicles, the national standard requires that the interior line standard of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional automobiles. The company's radiation cross-linked wire has the advantages of small cross-sectional area, strong current-carrying capacity, high temperature resistance and high safety factor, so it can be used in the construction of new energy vehicles and charging piles. At present, new energy vehicles are showing a trend of explosive growth. with the expansion of production, the market space of radiation cross-linked wires in the future can reach 30-5 billion yuan, and the company has acquired Leting power lines to protect production capacity. and through the stake in Internet + charging pile enterprise-Ju Power Technology, intervene in the downstream entrance of the charging pile, and expand the product market space through the post market. We estimate that the company's future market share of new energy vehicle lines and charging pile lines will reach 10-20%, that is, about 3-1 billion yuan, which can increase the company's profits by 36-120 million yuan.
Long-term point: high standard refractory busbar slot. Fire-resistant busbar slot is a new product exclusively developed and launched by the company, and its technical index leads the world. It can run safely for 180min at 1100 ℃, far exceeding the current product's 60min. The product can be automatically transformed into ceramic insulator at high temperature, which provides full guarantee for power supply safety. The product has been approved by the government and the Fire Safety Bureau, and it is expected that the order will be gradually realized in the next 2 years. It is expected that with the improvement of building fire safety standards during the 13th five-year Plan period, the company's products will usher in a period of rapid growth.
Profitability and valuation. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 15, 16 and 17 years is 0.98, 0.50 and 0.68 yuan respectively, of which the 15-year investment income accounts for a relatively high proportion. After deducting the investment income, the EPS of the company in 15-17 years is estimated to be 0.31 inch 0.43 inch 0.62 yuan respectively. Reference wire and cable comparable companies 16-year average PE valuation of 30 times, wind power comparable companies average valuation of 40 times, taking into account the company's leading advantage in research and development, and the demand for new products may exceed our conservative expectations due to the growth of new energy vehicles, give the company a 16-year PE valuation of 32 times, the target price of 16 yuan, the first "overweight" rating.