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【海通证券】亿阳信通公司年报点评:转型在路上,成长尤可期

海通證券 ·  Mar 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Affected by operator factors, performance growth was lower than expected. Operating revenue for 2015 was 1.197 billion yuan, up 2.18% from last year, and attributable net profit of 105 million yuan, up 7.85% year on year. Affected by operator personnel changes in the second half of '15 and delays in the progress of operators' OSS network management, etc., the company was unable to continue the rapid growth trend in the first three quarters of 2015. The revenue of the traditional computer communications business sector, which accounts for 71% of total revenue, fell 0.81% from last year, which ultimately caused overall performance growth to fall below expectations. Transformation is on the way, and growth is particularly promising. Based on the fields of operator communications and Internet+ informatization, the company launched a “big data+cloud security” strategic transformation in 2005, laying out business areas and profit space for sustainable growth such as big data, network optimization, and information security. At present, the company's private offering raised 1.16 billion yuan (fixed price increase of 1,709 yuan, focusing on the big data field) has passed the meeting, and the interests of the group's major shareholders, company management, and key employees will be deeply tied. Although the release of future results will take time, growth prospects can be expected. The NDRC promotes major big data projects, and the industry space is even more bullish. In January '16, the Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Organizing and Implementing Major Projects to Promote the Development of Big Data”, which requires all regions to focus on supporting the demonstration application of big data, sharing and openness, and the circulation of data elements. It is estimated that by 2016, the scale of the big data application industry will reach 13 billion yuan, and the market growth will maintain a relatively rapid annual compound growth rate of more than 30%. Yiyang ICT's core positions big data and extends to cloud security and network optimization. Relying on the advantages of traditional telecom services, the company independently developed big data analysis and operation platforms, built data collection and aggregation platforms for China Telecom Group, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin and other provinces, participated in the construction of a big data industry ecosystem, and promoted the application of video and traffic big data in smart city security, traffic supervision, large-scale factories and mines. In the field of cloud security, it has passed the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's sensitive data protection system industry shortlisted tests. Breakthroughs have been made in the fields of chip security, industrial control security, application security, etc., and industry applications have expanded to various fields such as petrochemicals, finance, and insurance. Network optimization provides operators in Jilin, Shandong, Henan and other places with customized network optimization solutions based on big data scenarios. Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect Yiyang ICT's revenue from 2016 to 2018 to be 1,559 million yuan (+30.23%), and 2,520 billion yuan (+26.45%); net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be $141 million, $183 million, and $234 million respectively, with EPS of 0.25 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.41 yuan, respectively, corresponding PE of 44, 34, and 27 times (based on February 29 closing price). Considering the company's fixed price increase of 17.09 yuan for the group's major shareholders and management, and the positive prospects of big data in the transformation industry, the “buy” rating was maintained, and the target price of 22.62 yuan for 6 months was maintained. Catalysts: Big data-related industry support policies, corporate mergers and acquisitions based on the direction of strategic transformation. Main risk factors: the risk of systemic valuation fluctuations in the market, and the big data industry policy falling short of expectations.

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