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【国海证券】西安饮食点评报告:高管增持彰显公司发展信心

國海證券 ·  Feb 24, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Main opinion: The increase in executive holdings shows confidence in the future development of the company. The company is an established catering company in Xi'an. The controlling shareholder is Western Travel Group (21.04%), and the actual controller is the Xi'an State Assets Administration Commission. The 10 executives who participated in this increase in holdings had not held shares in the company until then. Considering that capital operations have not been active in the company's history, we believe that under current market conditions, as a typical established state-owned enterprise, it is of great significance for executives to increase their stock holdings in the secondary market, and the company may be expected to usher in new changes. Performance has been poor in recent years, and there are demands for transformation. The company's current revenue mainly comes from the catering business, which contributed 77% and 74% of its revenue and operating profit in 2014, respectively. In recent years, the company's performance has declined due to the economic slowdown and strict control of consumption by the three public authorities. From 2011 to 2014, the company's revenue compound growth rate was -6.7%. Losses of 7.36 million yuan and 27.12 million yuan after deduction in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The estimated performance loss for 2015 is close to 30 million yuan. The growth of the company's main business is weak, and when the industry is sluggish, it is difficult to have much room for improvement in the short term by relying only on endogenous development performance. The company has clearly put forward transformation demands in past annual reports. In its 2014 annual report, the company proposed “make full use of the capital market as a platform to vigorously promote capital operations, accelerate epitaxial expansion, and speed up the pace of mergers and acquisitions. We strive to complete, launch, and reserve one merger and acquisition project every year, which plays an important role in the company's leapfrog development.” It also proposed a target of reaching a market value of 10 billion dollars in about three years. The company planned to acquire Jiahe Yipin in 2015, and the deal was later terminated due to other factors, but this confirmed the company's development plans. Whether it is reversing losses or reaching the company's market capitalization target, we believe that the company has a demand for continued external development. The expectations of the Xi'an Free Trade Zone, state-owned enterprise reform, and the Belt and Road policies support the company's future development. Shaanxi Province and Xi'an City have proposed state-owned enterprise reform plans and plans several times, and recently reviewed policy documents such as “Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of State-owned State-owned Enterprises” and “Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Development of a Mixed Ownership Economy (Trial)”. As an established state-owned enterprise, the company is expected to stimulate vitality through state-owned enterprise reform. Furthermore, Xi'an is also an important point in the Belt and Road, and is likely to qualify for the third batch of free trade zones in the near future. Important policy support also benefits the company in the medium to long term. Investment recommendations and profit forecasts: The company currently has a total market value of nearly 3.2 billion yuan and an annual operating cash flow of about 500 million to 600 million yuan. We believe that under the current conditions of state-owned enterprise reform and accelerated operation of industry capital, the company has strong expectations of expansion and expansion. In particular, the increase in holdings of ten senior executives this time shows the management's attitude of supporting the company's future development. The EPS for 2015 and 2016 is expected to be -0.06 and 0.02 yuan respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating for the first time. Risk warning: 1) economic downturn; 2) business risk; 3) major epidemic or emergency

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