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【西南证券】百大集团:肿瘤专科医院稀缺标的

西南證券 ·  Dec 28, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company issued an acquisition report stating that the actual controller, Mr. Chen Xiaxin, increased his shares in the top 100 groups, accounting for 0.97% of the total share capital, and indicated that there is still a possibility of continuing to increase his holdings in the next 12 months. The change in equity highlights the value of the company and is beneficial to long-term development. 1) In 2013, Xizi United transferred 113 million shares of the company (accounting for 29.98% of the total share capital) to Xizi International, and the actual controller was changed to Chen Xiaxin; 2) This change in equity was the first increase in the actual controller's holdings since 2013. After the increase in holdings, Mr. Chen Xiaxin directly held 3.66 million shares of the top 100 Group, accounting for 0.97% of the total share capital, and stated that the possibility of further increasing the company's shares in the next 12 months is not ruled out. The strategic transformation is clear, and new medical and health service industries are being developed. 1) Currently, the company's main business is concentrated in the traditional trade service industry. The main sources of revenue are Hangzhou-Bai and Hangzhou hotels and collectibles markets, and the cash flow is extremely stable; 2) While developing the traditional trade industry, the company is actively developing new healthcare service industries, investing in the establishment of Zhejiang Top 100 Medical Industry Investment Co., Ltd., and is determined to build a hospital group combining hospitals and clinics. Joining hands with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, it has turned into a rare target for oncology hospitals. 1) The company signed a cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in September to build the Xizi International Medical Center; 2) The Xizi International Medical Center project invests 1.5 billion yuan and plans to build 800 beds, with a construction level of a tertiary general hospital; 3) the first phase of 300 beds is expected to be put into use in early 2017; 4) Positioning high-end, the estimated annual revenue for a single bed is 50-1 million yuan, with a net profit ratio of 10-20%. Preliminary estimates suggest that the net profit after all beds are put into use will surpass the main business, and it is not ruled out that the company will further expand into the upstream and downstream cancer treatment industry chains. The first private tertiary cancer hospital in Zhejiang, a new benchmark for private hospitals. 1) Currently, China's public cancer hospitals account for 57% and the private sector accounts for 19%; 2) the extreme shortage of medical resources and the small share of private hospitals is the current state of distribution of medical resources; 3) Project construction is a useful attempt to solve this problem and has received strong support from the government. The oncology treatment industry has great potential to help the world. 1) According to the “2012 Annual Report on Cancer Registration in China”, the cancer incidence rate in China is increasing at a rate of 3% to 5% every year, and the average annual cost of cancer treatment is over 150 billion yuan. It is estimated that in 2015, the number of patients diagnosed and treated in cancer hospitals in China will be about 216 million; 2) As of 2009, there were only 116 oncology hospitals, with total annual revenue of about 20 billion yuan, accounting for 21% of the total revenue scale of specialist hospitals. Among all types of specialist hospitals, cancer hospitals have the highest average profit and rank second in average income. Valuation and ratings: We expect the company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.35 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 53 times, 52 times, and 51 times, respectively. We believe that the company's main business is stable. As a scarce target for oncology hospitals, there is some room for imagination, and for the first time, we have given it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Project construction progress or failure to meet expectations; main business may decline due to economic conditions.

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