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【中信建投证券】安记食品:复合调味品龙头,高增长大空间

中信建投證券 ·  Nov 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Leading compound condiments, “two wings in one” can be expected to grow, and the CAGR of compound seasoning in China will be around 30% in the past ten years. Compound seasonings account for 80% of the condiment market in developed countries such as Europe and the US, while China's compound seasonings still account for less than 20%. Currently, the production value of compound seasonings in China is between 25 billion and 30 billion dollars, and there is huge room for growth in the future. The company has a high brand awareness in the field of compound seasoning powder, and has occupied a high market share, especially in East China and Central South China. Among them, spareribs flavor king series products have become leaders in similar products, and natural extract seasonings and flavored soup products have also been widely used in the catering industry. In the next three years, the company will expand its main business with the strategy of “one, two wings”. “One” means using compound seasoning powder such as Prime Rib flavor as the leading product, consolidating and expanding its market share, and expanding other pork-flavored seasoning powders derived from pork, and using the “pork flavor” compound seasoning powder as the company's flagship product to create product differentiation. “Two wings” refers to vigorously developing edible fungus extract and Tetra Pak packaged bone broth products. Currently, the company has mastered the production technology and marketing network for these two types of products. After the 1:1 Tetra Pak seasoned bone soup product production project with an annual output of 10,000 tons and the production project of edible fungus extract with an annual output of 700 tons are put into operation, we believe it will become the company's new profit driving force. Profit Forecast and Valuation We expect the company's 2015 revenue to be 296 million yuan, up 5.98% year on year; net profit is 59 million yuan, up 4.99% year on year; and EPS is 0.71 yuan/share. According to Shenwan's industry classification, the current P/E (overall method) of the food and beverage industry and the tertiary industry (overall method) is 29.37 times and 56.24 times, respectively; the current P/E (TTM) of the condiment industry leaders Haitian, Hengshun, and Meihua Biotech is between 30-40 times. Referring to the valuation level of the industry and leading companies in the industry, we gave Anji Foods a target P/E of 30-40 times for 2015. Based on our performance forecast for the company in 2015, the reasonable valuation range is 21.3-28.4 yuan.

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