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【华泰证券】大连友谊业绩预告点评:减包袱,促转型

華泰證券 ·  Jan 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company announced its 2015 results forecast. Net profit losses attributable to shareholders of listed companies were 180 to 200 million yuan, down 418.83% to 454.25% from the same period last year, and EPS losses of 0.51 to 56 million yuan. Preparation for impairment was the main reason for the company's losses in 2015. Considering the downturn in the real estate market, there is a clear trend of price in exchange for volume. The company calculated impairment preparations for the Dalian Furama International Project, the Shenyang Friendship Times Square project, and the Handan Friendship Times Square project, combined with the company's non-operating income of about 180 million yuan in eviction compensation this year, estimated that it had calculated asset impairment preparations of about 500 million yuan this year, accounting for about 6% of total assets. Larger asset impairment preparations were not only based on predicting the situation in the real estate industry, but also mitigating the burden on subsequent financial transformation development based on prudential risk management principles. The direction of financial transformation is clear, and the quality of the restructured assets is excellent. The company plans to issue shares from the two counterparties of Wuxin Investment Group and Wuxin Management Company to purchase all the relevant assets involved in debt financing, namely 100% of the shares of Wuxin Guarantee Group, 100% of the shares of Wuhan Small and Medium Guarantee Company, 90% of the shares of Wuhan Venture Guarantee Company, 18% of Wuxin Small Loan Company, 100% of Wuhan Credit Company, 90% of the shares of Wuxin Rating Company, and 70% of Hanxin Internet Finance's shares. After the restructuring is completed, Wuxin Investment Group is expected to directly hold 57.87% of the company's shares. Wuxin Investment Group and its co-actor, Wuxin Management, will collectively hold 64.93% of the listed company's shares, and Wuxin Investment Group will become the controlling shareholder of the listed company. The company cooperated with state-owned enterprises under the Wuhan State-owned Assets Administration Commission to acquire a basket of financial companies, and the direction of financial transformation is clear. Furthermore, based on Wuxin Investment Group's state-owned assets background and many years of risk control experience, its assets have maintained good profitability. In particular, the guarantee and credit sector has maintained a ROE level of more than 16% despite the slowdown in macroeconomic growth. Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering that the company's supporting financing increased the capital of Wuxin Guarantee Group by 2 billion yuan, which greatly supports its profits, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2016 to 2018 is estimated to be about 6.57, 9.27, and 1,232 billion yuan. Considering the transformation and development brought about by financial asset injections and the increase in Hankin's business volume, PE28 to 30, the company is expected to have a market value of about 185 to 20 billion yuan, a share capital of 1,288 billion shares, and a current market value of 14.9 billion yuan (examining asset restructuring and supporting financing). Risk warning: Asset restructuring and supporting financing plans have fallen short of expectations.

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