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【兴业证券】香江控股-久旱必雨,浇灌香江系列报告之五:年度业绩预增公告点评

興業證券 ·  Jan 31, 2016 10:00  · Researches

Investment essentials. Event: The company released its 2015 performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2015 will increase 47% to 97% over the same period in 2014, and an increase of -9.8% to 20.8% over the same period in 2014. Comment: The injection of assets has begun to contribute to performance. The company released its 2015 performance forecast. The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2015 to increase 47% to 97% compared to the same period in 2014, and an increase of -9.8% to 20.8% over the same period in 2014. The reason for the sharp increase in performance compared to the 2015 performance forecast is mainly due to the completion of absorption and mergers in major asset restructuring, which has led to an increase in the scope of financial statement consolidation, which has led to an increase in overall performance. The 450 million non-public offering was successful, greatly enhancing the company's financial strength. In 2015, the company's first asset injection and supporting fund-raising were completed, greatly enhancing the company's capital strength and effectively boosting investor confidence; at the same time, it also laid the foundation for the second asset injection and supporting fundraising plan (scale of 2.36 billion yuan, base price: 6.06 yuan) being promoted by the majority shareholders. It is expected that with the majority shareholders' two core asset injections and the successful implementation of supporting financing, the company's high-quality assets will be greatly expanded, and the majority shareholders' support for the listed platform will be further increased. At the same time, the total capital raised from the two support packages reached 4.81 billion yuan, leaving 3.81 billion yuan after deducting 1 billion dollars in cash payments to the majority shareholders. It will further enhance the company's financial strength and provide a guarantee for the company's long-term development. The management grants stock incentives, which help strengthen cohesion and combat effectiveness; the majority shareholders are rich in resources and value listing platforms. The management recently granted the first stock incentive, with a volume of 24.48 million shares, accounting for about 3.19% of the share capital (770 million shares) at the time the plan was signed. The unlocking conditions are that the growth rate of non-net profit deducted from the mother in 2016-2018 is not less than 82%, 99%, or 120% compared to 2014. Stock incentives help strengthen the cohesion and combat effectiveness of a company's management. As the only listing platform under the majority shareholders, Heung Kong Holdings also received great attention from the majority shareholders. Investment suggestions: The company's newly injected assets have begun to contribute to performance, major shareholders' resources continue to support the company's development, and equity incentives effectively enhance cohesion and combat effectiveness. Currently, the company's RNAV is 11.5 yuan, providing a high margin of safety for the current stock price. According to the latest share capital and announcements, we have raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's 2015-2017 EPS will be 0.28, 0.35, and 0.45 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 20.8, 16.3, and 12.9 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Sales recovery falls short of expectations; restructuring progress falls short of expectations.

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