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京华山一评中国天溢(00756—HK)增持,目标价1.30元

京華山一證券(香港)有限公司 ·  Nov 23, 2015 08:33  · Researches

Jinghuashan issued a report, setting China Tianyi (00756-HK) as an increase in holdings, with a target price of 1.30 yuan; net profit is expected to increase by 47% over two years in 2016/17. Jinghuashan is optimistic about China's Tianyi prospects and believes that a price-earnings ratio of 20 times is reasonable. Jinghuashan Yifa uses a segmented aggregate valuation method, which takes into account the 13 times price-earnings ratio of the frozen concentrated orange juice business and 20/23 times that of the non-concentrated reduced orange juice business to reflect the rapid development of its beverage brand. The valuations under the basic/optimistic scenario were HK$1.12/1.30 per share, respectively. The bank believes that the market has not yet fully reflected the prospects for Sumi Mei to concentrate and restore orange juice; as long as Tianyi's strategy for this product is implemented smoothly, there should still be plenty of room for stock prices to rise. Under an optimistic scenario, Tianyi's Summei Juice revenue could reach 380 million yuan in fiscal year 17. Mori Meishang is in the early stages of market adoption, and there is still uncertainty about market acceptance. The bank takes into account various promotion effects and market expectations in the scenario analysis, and uses this to assume the sales volume of each supermarket sales point. Under the optimistic/basic/pessimistic scenario, revenue for fiscal year 17 was 379/2.61/155 million yuan, respectively. The optimistic scenario meant that 30 boxes were sold every day in 2017. The forecast was more aggressive but still within a reasonable range, because Sumi had a competitive advantage over domestic brands and entry barriers compared to overseas brands. Jinghua Shanyi believes that the current price of this stock reflects the market's conservative expectations about the growth prospects of Sammi orange juice. As long as Sumi shows the growth prospects of its food and beverage brands with steady monthly sales data, then there is still plenty of room for stock prices to rise. The stock rose 19.09% throughout the day to close at HK$1.31.

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