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【国海证券】大连友谊深度研究报告:转型“金融+”,金控平台助力“P2P+征信”起航

國海證券 ·  Dec 21, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Main view: Inject the financial control platform of the entire industry chain and plan the overall strategy of “Finance +”. The company plans to acquire assets related to guarantees, credit loans, microfinance, credit reporting, and P2P internet finance under Wuhan Financial Holdings (at a cost of 6.27 billion yuan). If the acquisition is completed, Wuhan Financial Holdings will become the actual controller of the listed company, and the Wuhan State-owned Assets Administration Commission will become the final controller. After the completion of this transaction, on the one hand, the performance of listed companies will improve significantly; on the other hand, in the future, listed companies can create synergies and complements with existing self-owned commercial property projects, real estate projects, and department store retail, using “Finance +” as the overall strategy to provide a full range of “good+finance” services and support for the department store retail supply chain, commodity and housing consumers, real estate developers, and property operators from the front end to the later stages. If the deal is completed, Dalian Friendship will become the only listing platform under Wuhan Financial Holdings. (1) In the context of state-owned enterprise reform, increasing the securitization rate of state-owned assets will become a trend. If this transaction is completed, the company will become the only listed company controlled by Wuhan Financial Holdings, and the platform has significant advantages. (2) Shareholders' state-owned capital control background will help the development of the company's various businesses. Currently, in addition to the financial assets to be injected this time, Wuhan Financial Holdings also holds the three major financial assets of Hubei Financial Leasing Company, Changjiang Financial Services Company, and the Wuhan Financial Exchange. At the same time, it also has shares in Hankou Bank, Fangzheng East Asia Trust, and Wuhan Agricultural Commercial Bank. The huge financial camp under Wuhan Financial Holdings is expected to become a partner of the P2P platform Hankin, providing sufficient high-quality assets for Hankin. The four major sectors promote each other to build a complete industrial chain. The targets of the company's proposed restructuring include four major business segments: guarantee, credit reporting, and P2P internet finance. The sectors support each other and jointly build a complete industrial chain providing financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Furthermore, we believe that the national layout of the target company's credit granting business will bring business expansion to company guarantees and P2P platforms, and at the same time provide more sample data from outside the province for the credit reporting business. “Hanjin Institute”: Building the largest financial trading platform in central China. (1) The trading volume exceeded 100 million yuan in the first month of launch. Since its official launch in March 2015, Hankin's trading volume exceeded 100 million yuan in the first month, setting a record for the first month of the launch of the state-owned P2P platform in central China. (2) Adequate high-quality assets are the core guarantee for the sustainable growth of the platform. Wuhan Financial Holdings has a huge lineup of financial companies, and the credit and guarantee sector can provide a high-quality asset side for the platform. At the same time, we predict that in the future, financial leasing, financial exchanges, and participating banks and trust companies under Wuhan Financial Holdings are all expected to become partners of Hankin Institute, providing sufficient high-quality assets for the platform. Hankin relies on advantages such as shareholder background advantages and a strong risk control system, and its platform transaction scale is expected to grow rapidly in 2016. Credit reporting: Gathering “government+finance” data to create an “individual+enterprise” credit reporting system. (1) Start early and have rich experience. Wuhan Credit Corporation was awarded the title of “the country's first batch of 'national informatization pilot units'” by the National Development and Reform Commission, and is one of the earliest professional institutions engaged in credit reporting business in China. Currently, the company has a nationally leading personal and corporate credit reporting system. (2) Gathering “government+finance” data. Through close cooperation with various functional departments of the Wuhan Municipal Government, the focus is on collecting corporate credit data from public services and social management, and accumulating formed customer information through financial services under the Wuxin Investment Group. (3) Outlook 1: The personal credit reporting business is expected to achieve a breakthrough. The company is currently responsible for the construction and operation of a joint social credit reporting system (including individuals and enterprises) in Wuhan. We believe that the company has leading technical and experiential advantages in personal credit reporting business, and is expected to make breakthroughs in personal credit reporting licenses in the future. (4) Outlook 2: Data sources will gradually expand to Hubei Province. We believe that in the future, as the construction of the credit system in Hubei Province progresses, the company is expected to share credit data with Hubei Province. I am optimistic about the development prospects of the company's internet finance and credit reporting business, and give it a “buy” rating. We predict that without considering the results of this asset injection, the net profit of Dalian Friendship's original main business from 2015 to 2017 will be 41 million yuan, -67 million yuan, and -0.48 million yuan, respectively; if the asset restructuring is implemented, the net profit of listed companies for 15-17 will be 690 million yuan, 680 million yuan, and 875 million yuan respectively. Currently, the PE corresponding to the stock price is 41.5 times, 42 times, and 33 times, respectively. With the completion of this asset restructuring, we gave the company a “buy” rating based on the company's aircraft carrier-level financial control shareholder background, the collaborative layout of the entire industry chain, and the broad future development prospects of P2P and credit reporting businesses. Risk warning: This major asset restructuring process was blocked; the company's original main business declined beyond expectations; the performance of the assets to be acquired fell short of expectations, and the development of P2P platforms and credit reporting services fell short of expectations.

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