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【西南证券】利德曼:化学发光放量在即,生化诊断协同促增长

西南證券 ·  Dec 7, 2015 16:00  · Researches

Key investment events: Recently, we had exchanges with company executives on the company's business and future development. Chemiluminescence emission is imminent, driving rapid growth in performance. Chemiluminescence is the largest cash flow in the IVD industry, and it is a must-compete place for soldiers. Based on factory caliber calculation, the chemiluminescence market reached 13 billion yuan in 2014, and the share of the overall IVD market was about 30%. As the coverage rate of level-II hospitals and below increases and imports replace domestic products, the compound annual growth rate of 20%-25% will be maintained in the future. The CI1000, a self-produced chemiluminescence instrument, was launched in July last year, and has entered 301 hospitals as a model for product promotion. Currently, it has sold more than 40 units, and is expected to exceed 100 units throughout the year. The agent IDS chemiluminescence instrument is compatible with various test items such as chemiluminescence, biochemistry, and coagulation, which effectively complements the CI1000 in terms of performance and customer base. Both CI1000 and IDS can use more than 30 chemiluminescence reagents developed by the company itself. As the number of chemiluminescence instruments launched increases, it will drive rapid release of reagents and become a new performance growth point. The acquisition of Desai expands the product line and enhances the competitiveness of biochemical diagnostics. The acquisition of Desai further improves the biochemical diagnostic product line and enhances market competitiveness. (1) Product line collaboration: Desai ranks in the top three foreign brands, and has the highest market share of special testing programs such as Hcy, special proteins, and cerebrospinal fluid, etc., and also has internationally leading immunological projection turbidity reagents. Immune testing programs are carried out on biochemical platforms with high accuracy and low cost, which meets the demands of hospitals to control costs; while the company's biochemical diagnosis is mainly based on traditional biochemical testing programs such as liver function and kidney function, which can complement Desai's special testing programs. (2) Complementary marketing channels: Desai has strong competitive strength in the middle and high-end markets. The coverage rate of the top 50 hospitals in China has reached 74%, and the number of dealers of Desai and the company has exceeded 300, which can promote product sales from both sides through synergy. Lay out the entire IVD product line to create an integrated leader in raw materials and reagents. The company has seized the opportunity of import substitution for biochemical diagnostics to rise rapidly. It has entered the largest and rapidly growing chemiluminescence market through its own CI1000 and agent IDS chemiluminescence instruments. It is responsible for the sales of Enigma's POCT product mini-laboratory ML based on molecular diagnosis platforms in the domestic market, covering biochemistry, immunity, molecules and POCT technology platforms, and has become a comprehensive IVD supplier. At the same time, raw materials for biochemical reagents are actively developed. With price advantages, import substitution can be achieved, and quality can also be controlled and costs reduced at the source, improving market competitiveness. Profit forecast and rating: The company's EPS for 2015-2017 is expected to be 0.34 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 57 times, 46 times, and 42 times, respectively. Considering that chemiluminescence products are in the release stage and will drive rapid growth in performance, the acquisition of post-Desai biochemical diagnostic products can exert obvious synergistic effects, and actively deploy molecular diagnosis and POCT products to complete the entire product line coverage of the IVD industry, integrated production of raw materials and reagents has significantly enhanced market competitiveness. It was covered for the first time, and a “accumulation of holdings” rating was given. Risk warning: The risk that chemiluminescence promotion falls short of expectations; the risk that increased competition in biochemical diagnostics will lead to price reductions.

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