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【海通证券】黑牡丹公司季报点评:结算受周期性影响,定增有助推动发展

海通證券 ·  Oct 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: events. The company announced its 2015 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 3.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.6%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 157 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%; and basic earnings per share of 0.20 yuan. In the first three quarters of 2015, the company's revenue and net profit declined by 31.6% and 21.3%, respectively, due to the decline in real estate settlement and the reduction in cotton trade volume. At the end of the third quarter of 2015, the area of equity land that had not started construction was 473,200 square meters, and the planned equity construction area did not exceed 1.103,300 square meters. There was no change in the current period. In the third quarter of 2015, no new projects were started, with a completed area of 35,600 square meters. In the third quarter of 2015, it achieved a contract area of 24,600 square meters, an increase of 34.91% over the previous year, and a contract amount of 157 million yuan, an increase of 35.55% over the previous year. As of September 30, 2015, the company's real estate leased area was 80,400 square meters, and in the third quarter of 2015, rental income was 4,540,400 yuan. The company introduced two individual shareholders through targeted issuance, and raised 1.6 billion yuan to supplement the company's working capital, of which 600 million yuan was used to repay loans. On August 7, 2015, after implementing the 2014 profit distribution plan, the company adjusted the issue price of non-public shares from no less than 6.44 yuan/share to no less than 6.36 yuan/share; the number issued was adjusted from no more than 248 million shares to no more than 252 million shares. On October 12, 2015, the company announced that the company's non-public offering of shares was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Investment advice. Introduce a fixed increase in individual shareholders, raise capital to enhance development momentum, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. The company integrates textiles and clothing, comprehensive urban development, and industrial investment. On behalf of the government, the company is deeply involved in the development of all businesses in New Taipei; the 17.5 square kilometer high-speed rail area and 10,000 hectares of good land project, which is in the first phase of construction, is progressing smoothly, and is starting the second phase of land development. According to the contract company, it will receive 10% project revenue and a 5:5 share of revenue. Changzhou's housing price-income ratio is low, and the 439-square-kilometer Xinbei District has developed only 1/5, so there is room for expansion in the future. The company promotes the rejuvenation of textiles and clothing through a brand strategy (self-created ERQ jeans brand), and the Bank of Jiangsu, Changshu Auto Parts, etc. it invests in is expected to go public. Therefore, we expect the company's 2015 and 2016 EPS to be 0.38 and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 13.7 yuan. As of October 29, the company closed at 10.7 yuan, corresponding to PE of 28.2 times and 22.8 times in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Considering that the company's capital raising enhances development momentum, we use 1.1 times the company's RNAV, or 15.1 yuan, as the company's target price for the next 6 months to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The industry faces two major risks: interest rate hikes and policy regulation.

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