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【渤海证券】贵州百灵调研报告:业绩增长抢眼,贵州慢病管理进展超预期

渤海證券 ·  Dec 1, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Yindan is a new basic drug. Prices have been maintained relatively well, and the growth rate is expected to continue to benefit from the idea of “emphasizing prescription drug sales and diverse marketing,” and the company's performance growth is impressive. The company achieved revenue of 1.24 billion yuan and net profit of 230 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 22.64% and 32.61% year-on-year respectively, and the revenue growth rate for the first three quarters increased month-on-month. On the one hand, future performance growth is due to the fact that the largest variety of Yindan Xinnaotong softgels is a new base drug, benefiting from a new round of bidding and procurement. Judging from the current tender prices, prices have remained relatively good, and it is expected that the growth rate will continue to be high next year. In addition, the company's third-tier products are growing strongly, benefiting from the company's strong marketing strength. At present, a sales team of nearly 3,000 people has been formed. Among them, the prescription drug team has covered more than 3,000 hospitals above level II, and the OTC team has sunk to the county level. The company's OTC promotion also pays attention to the quality of coverage under broad coverage. Currently, contracts have been signed with 50,000 to 60,000 pharmacies to strengthen the display and promotion of the company's products on terminals. Furthermore, the sales staff can also grasp the maintenance and management of stores at any time through information technology, and the response speed to terminals is very high. The company's “pharmaceutical+medical+device+chronic disease platform” model layout in Guizhou exceeds expectations. The company has formed a “Sugar Ning Communication+Diabetes Hospital+Devices+Chronic Disease Management” in the field of diabetes. The current progress has exceeded expectations. After several months of preparation and operation, the first phase of the Guizhou Diabetes Prevention and Control Project has formed a service team of dozens of people. The prevention and control information platform has been set up and put into use. Currently, nearly 2,500 patients are being managed, and the patient activity is high. Furthermore, with the exception of Guiyang City, the number of patients in Zunyi City has already exceeded 1,000. This shows that under the impetus of the policy, the following counties and cities are also actively promoting the construction of platforms. We believe that in a short period of less than 3 years, the company has set up hospitals and operated a chronic disease management platform around Tangning Tongliao capsules. The progress has been rapid, and the team has strong execution. Tangning Tongluo capsules have pioneered a new model of drug promotion through in-hospital formulation. In Guizhou, the company is expected to use the “pharmaceutical+medical+device+chronic disease platform” model to quickly obtain patient resources, bringing a lot of room for imagination for subsequent companies to promote sugar communication and form a profitable business model. The actual controller has a high shareholding ratio, and has a high degree of control. As of this year's three-quarter report, Jiang Wei, the company's chairman and actual controller, and co-actors hold 71.4% of the company's shares and have a high degree of control over the company. Currently, the company's main business is growing well, and it has entered the diabetes field through the Sugar Ning Network. Preliminary arrangements have been made in hospitals and chronic disease management. With the further layout of the business, the possibility of capital management in the future is not ruled out. The investment proposal is that in terms of the new drug layout, the Class 1.1 hepatitis B drug, the Telfinteil project and the anti-tumor drug, the xorubicin liposome project, are progressing smoothly, and are also one of the highlights of the future. We expect the company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.3, 0.35, and 0.42 yuan/share. Considering the relatively rapid growth rate of the company's performance and the layout surrounding diabetes, we have given an increase in holdings rating.

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