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【国海证券】星徽精密三季报业绩点评:业绩增速符合预期,未来产能释放触发公司业绩弹性

國海證券 ·  Nov 5, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company recently released its three-quarter report, and the performance growth rate is in line with expectations. During the period, it achieved cumulative operating income of 290 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of +7.24%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.63%. The third quarter achieved revenue of 108 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of +3.30%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 8.91 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.17%. The slight increase in revenue in the current period was mainly due to the upgrading of downstream product functions and the expansion of product application fields. The year-on-year decline in net profit growth was due to an increase in depreciation of the unit plant before production capacity was not fully utilized after the Qingyuan base was put into operation. A leader in the domestic metal connectors industry, there is plenty of room for future growth. The company is the only listed company in China that focuses on the production of slides and hinges, and its main business has stable gross margin and operating cash flow. Leading companies in the international industry mainly include European Hettich, Blum, and North American Agula, with a gross margin of about 60%, of which the global sales revenue of Agula (which produces ball bearing slides) exceeds 10 billion yuan. There are only 2-3 domestic brand manufacturers, and the market capacity is about 20 to 30 billion yuan. The company has huge room for future growth. Equity incentives stimulate employee motivation and lay the foundation for future performance growth. The company announced a restricted stock incentive plan in August. It plans to grant 1,545 million restricted shares to core executives at a price of 16.75 yuan/share. The unlocking conditions are based on 2014 financial data. The 2015-17 revenue growth rate was not less than 15%/50%/100%, and the net profit growth rate was not less than 10%/30%/75%, respectively. In the context where systemic risks still exist, the future of the company is tied to the interests of employees through equity incentive plans, demonstrating management's confidence in future performance. Fund-raising projects improve production capacity bottlenecks and provide guarantees for high long-term performance growth. By the end of 2014, the company's production capacity of slides and hinges was 533.6 million inches and 65.55 million sets, respectively, with capacity utilization rates of 97.17% and 95.37% respectively, and the main products were operating at full capacity. Following the completion of the fund-raising project, the company's performance and valuation are expected to increase dramatically. It is expected to increase revenue by 392 million yuan per year, increase annual profit by 41.05 million yuan, and have a payback period of 498 years. Profit forecasting and investment ratings. The company is a leader in the domestic metal connector industry, and its main business gross margin and operating cash flow are stable. The recent equity incentive plan shows management's confidence in the company's future high growth. In the long run, the completion of the fund-raising project will resolve current production capacity bottlenecks and trigger performance elasticity. We predict that the company's 2015-17 EPS will be 0.71/1.12/1.46 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 58.54/36.95/28.31 times, giving it an “increase in wealth” rating. Risk factors: Industry demand has not reached the expected level, and production capacity is expanding more slowly than expected.

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