share_log

兴业证券: 中国天溢(00756-HK)2016年将成纯鲜搾果汁龙头

興業證券 ·  Nov 10, 2015 13:14  · Researches

According to the analysis of the Societe Generale Securities Report, China Tianyi (00756-HK) was given an increase in holdings for the first time. The pure juice market is broad, and Tianyi has a strong advantage. The bank is optimistic about the company's new business development prospects and suggests closely tracking the progress of the new business. The bank predicts that the company's net profit growth rates for 2015-2017 will be -42%, 35%, and 91%; the EPS will be HK$0.057 (same below), $0.07, and $0.13, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 15X, 11X, and 6X respectively. For 2016 15XPE, the target price is 1.24 yuan. The target price is 29% of the current price. According to Societe Generale Securities, in 2016, China Tianyi will become the leader in pure freshly squeezed juice (NFC) orange juice, with a number of first-mover advantages: 1. Companies that exclusively add fruit grains (sachets) to orange juice have strong differentiation in product taste; 2. Executives are experienced in the beverage industry. Operation directors and sales executives are from Mars and Huiyuan, and R&D directors are from Weiquan and familiar with the way the juice market works; 3. The company's dealers and operation team have extensive experience in cold chain operations, and next year's sales will surpass zero fruit and rise to the top position in the industry. The company has a clear market strategy and precise marketing to high-end consumers: products target high-end white-collar workers and other groups, sell in Tier 1 and 2 cities, use high-end supermarkets and special channels such as bakeries, coffee shops, and cinemas (fully enter Starbucks next year), and promote word of mouth through e-commerce. The marketing strategy uses ground promotion such as sampling, tasting, and WeChat sharing to directly contact target consumers to achieve accurate marketing and word-of-mouth marketing. As a juice consumption upgrade product, fresh juice is on the eve of the outbreak, and the market capacity is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan (RMB. same below): the domestic juice drink market is 100 billion, of which 100% juice market is 30 billion, the vast majority of which is traditional FC (concentrated reduction) juice. NFC is fresher and healthier, and is an upgraded alternative to FC juice: US NFC accounts for 60% of juice consumption, and China accounts for only 2%; US consumption per capita is 10L, and China is only 0.01L. The long-term market capacity of NFC juice in China will exceed 100 billion yuan. China's juice consumption is being upgraded. In an environment where the number of juice drinks containing juice is growing in single digits, 100% juice has maintained a 20-25% increase. Compared with the high-end water industry, the consumer groups and consumption frequency of the two are quite similar. The short-term NFC juice industry space is expected to reach 10 billion yuan. The NFC industry has high barriers, and only a few players are bound to survive: NFC barriers come from raw materials and cold chain management capabilities, making it difficult for traditional (room temperature) juice companies to enter the NFC juice industry in a short period of time. Imported brands are difficult to spread domestically due to tariffs and shelf life. With the introduction of the national standard for the NFC industry next year, the industry will be further regulated, and some FC juices that mislead consumers with packaging will be withdrawn from the market.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment