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【海通证券】星光农机新股研究报告:联合收割机,机收获星光

海通證券 ·  Apr 14, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company is a supplier of combine harvesters for harvesting crops such as wheat, rice and rapeseed. Its main business is the R&D, production and sales of combine harvesters, and it is a key enterprise for the development and production of combine harvesters in China. The company's Starlight series combine harvesters are the mainstream models of domestic harvesters. The company's main business is R&D, production and sales of combine harvesters. The main products are Starlight series combine harvesters, which are the mainstream models of domestic rice and rapeseed combine harvesters, and one of the two major varieties of wheat combine harvesters. With strong differentiated competitive advantages and good brand awareness, the company's combined harvester business achieved revenue of 758 million yuan, 606 million yuan, and 574 million yuan from 2012 to 2014, an increase of 50.33%, -20.13%, and -5.04% over the previous year. Affected by adverse factors such as increased market competition and flooding in the Northeast region in 2013 and 2014, the company's operating income declined for two consecutive years, but there was a trend of tightening. The company's market position is stable, and product prices and performance are steadily improving. From 2012 to 2014, the company sold 11,200, 8941, and 8189 combine harvesters respectively. According to the number of self-propelled grain combine harvesters sold, the company ranked third, fourth, and third in the industry, respectively, with a stable market position. At the same time, in order to meet market demand, the company has made a series of continuous product improvements, increased product configurations, further improved product quality and performance, and increased product prices accordingly. The corresponding prices from 2012 to 2014 were 65,900 yuan, 65,500 yuan, and 67,000 yuan, respectively. The harvesting rate of domestic machines is low, and the demand for combine harvesters is strong. The machine harvesting process is the one with the lowest mechanization rate among the three major crop cultivation and harvesting operations in China. In 2012, the comprehensive mechanization level of crop cultivation harvesting in China was 57.17%, of which the organic harvesting level was only 44.40%, while the level of organic farming and the level of machine planting reached 74.11% and 47.37% respectively. The overall harvesting level of China's major crops is showing an accelerated development trend, leading to strong demand for combine harvesting machinery. From 2011 to 2015, the total domestic demand for combine harvesters was about 800,000 units, with an average annual average of more than 150,000 units, and a broad market capacity. Fund-raising projects: The funds raised this time are mainly used to build a new multi-function high-efficiency combine harvester project with an annual output of 20,000 units, with a total investment of 497 million yuan. The company currently has a production capacity of 8,000 units, and new projects have expanded production capacity by 2.5 times. After the project reaches production and realizes benefits, it is estimated that annual revenue will increase by 1.32 billion yuan, and total profit will increase by 190 million yuan. The number of new shares issued by the company this time is no more than 50 million shares, and the total share capital after issuance does not exceed 20 million shares, and the amount of capital it plans to raise is about 497 million yuan. Based on the latest complete dilution of the total share capital after issuance, the company's 2015-2017 EPS is 0.71, 0.79, and 0.88 yuan respectively. According to the 15-year dynamic valuation of comparable companies, a 15-year dynamic PE 28-35x is conservatively given. The reasonable value range should be 19.88-24.85 yuan, and the issue price is 11.23 yuan/share, so subscription is recommended. Risk warning: Macroeconomic cycles fluctuate, and technology-intensive industries have risks in developing new products.

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