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【中泰证券】万向钱潮:Q3业绩暂时性下降,Q4将重返增长通道

中泰證券 ·  Oct 19, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced its performance report for the third quarter of 2015. Revenue and profit for the quarter fell short of expectations. The company announced the three-quarter report for 2015. In January-September, the company achieved operating income of 7.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 572 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, net profit after deduction of 541 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.41%, and EPS of 0.25 yuan, an increase of 11.66% year-on-year. The operating income for the third quarter was 1,965 million yuan, down 11.75% year on year, net profit was 123 million yuan, down 23.64% year on year, and net profit was 106 million yuan after deduction, down 31.91% year on year. The company's three-quarter revenue and profit reports fell short of expectations. Temporary factors are the main reason for the year-on-year decline in Q3 revenue and profit, and Q4 will resume normal growth. Two temporary factors led to a year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue and profit: (1) The company's customer demand declined. Affected by the downturn in the industry, the company's high-end and important customers, such as FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, and Shanghai GM, extended their high-temperature vacations in Q3, and maintenance caused automobile production and sales to drop in Q3, which in turn led to a decline in demand for the company's parts. (2) The timing of confirmation of investment returns is misaligned. Wanxiang Finance Company, which is owned by the company, paid dividends of 30.32 million yuan and 22.65 million yuan in Q3 of 2014 and Q2 of 2015, respectively. Due to the misalignment in the confirmation time of this portion of investment income, the impact on Q3 profit was about 10 percentage points. (3) Q4 Company revenue and profit will resume normal growth. On the one hand, there is no investment income problem with marketable financial assets in Q4, and this impact will disappear. On the other hand, demand from the company's key customers has returned to a growth trend, spurred by the halving of the purchase tax, driving the company's performance growth. The company is actively transforming into new energy vehicle components, and has expectations that the group will inject high-quality new energy vehicle assets. (1) The company entered the new energy drive motor business through equity participation. The company invested 110 million yuan in Tianjin Songzheng Company in July 2015. Its main product, the new energy drive motor, is one of the three core components of new energy vehicles. Its main customers include leading bus companies such as Yutong Bus, Xiamen Jinlong, Xiamen Golden Travel, Suzhou Jinlong, and Zhongtong Bus. Tianjin Songzheng has strong technology research and development capabilities and subsequent development capabilities, and is one of the leading enterprises in the industry. (2) The Group's high quality NEV asset injection expectations are strong. Wanxiang Group has injected high-quality assets into Wanxiang's financial stream many times and has become the main source of the company's performance. The group currently has a complete industrial chain for battery, motor, electronic control and vehicle R&D and manufacturing, and has promised to inject electric vehicle assets into the tide of money at the right time. Currently, new energy vehicles have entered a stage of accelerated development, and the Group's high-quality new energy vehicle assets are expected to be injected into listed companies one after another, leading to rapid growth in performance. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: Considering that the company's revenue and profit for the third quarter fell short of expectations, we lowered the 2015-2017 operating income to 10.12 billion yuan, 11.09 billion yuan and 12.41 billion yuan respectively. Net profit was 829 million yuan, 918 million yuan and 1,032 million yuan respectively. The growth rates were 17.3%, 10.8% and 12.4% respectively, and the corresponding EPS were 0.36 yuan, 0.40 yuan and 0.45 yuan respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn has led to a decline in automobile sales, which in turn has led to a decrease in demand for auto parts and a drop in prices; the uncertainty of the Group's new energy vehicle business injecting a wave of money into Wanxiang; there are fluctuations in the NEV development process, and demand falls short of expectations.

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