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【国泰君安】赣能股份:主业成长预期提振,新兴产业逐渐布局

國泰君安 ·  Oct 18, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Fengcheng Phase III has been built and is progressing smoothly. Performance contributions have been remarkable after production is put into operation, and inland nuclear power is also expected to restart, boosting growth expectations for the company's main business; at the same time, the company is also actively moving into emerging industries; maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating. Key Investment Points: Investment Proposals: Fengcheng Phase III has already been built. There is a basic balance between supply and demand growth in Jiangxi Province over the next 2-3 years. Utilization time after production is put into operation is more guaranteed. It is estimated that the total production capacity will increase EPS by 0.83 yuan per year. Inland nuclear power will enter a thawing window period. The market value of the company unit corresponding to the market value of nuclear power has the highest share capacity, and the most flexible benefits. With the deep decline in coal prices, the company's main business has been revitalized and is actively moving towards diversification of energy structures and moderate industrial diversification. According to the business trends shown in the latest reporting period, we raised our profit forecast for 2015-2017, and the estimated net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was raised from 4.56/4.98/554 million yuan to 5.51/5.71/618 million yuan; regardless of the dilution of additional share capital, the corresponding EPS was raised from 0.70/0.77/0.86 yuan to 0.85/0.88/0.96 yuan. Due to the overall decline in the market valuation center and comprehensive updated PE and PB valuations, we adjusted the company's target price to 15.68 yuan to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Fengcheng Phase III has already been built, and has contributed significantly to performance since it was put into operation. The company's Fengcheng Phase III (2*1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical thermal power) project has begun. The electricity demand situation in Jiangxi Province is good. There is a basic balance between supply and demand growth in the next 2-3 years, and utilization time after production is put into operation is more guaranteed. The estimated annual revenue scale is about 3.6 billion yuan, and net profit is about 540 million yuan, corresponding to the increase in the company's current share capital EPS of 0.83 yuan. Benefiting from the strong elasticity of restarting inland nuclear power, growth expectations will be strengthened. The company participated in two inland nuclear power projects (Pengze Nuclear Power and Wan'an Yanjiashan Nuclear Power). The share capacity corresponding to nuclear power per unit market value was the highest, benefiting from the greatest flexibility in restarting inland nuclear power. Among them, all of the preliminary work on Peng Ze's nuclear power plant has been completed, and it is expected that the first batch of restarts will be strengthened after completion, and the company's growth expectations will be strengthened after completion. The main business regained its vitality and expanded into emerging industries. The company plans to cooperate with the Aerospace Cloud Network to build an innovative Internet service platform to provide trade services, product promotion, software services, etc. for key enterprises in the province; it is also exploring the layout of the new energy industry and gradually diversifying its business structure. Risk factors: the hourly decline in the use of thermal power, the progress of reserve projects falling short of expectations, etc.

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