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【申万宏源】新元科技:国内领先的工业智能化输送和配料成套解决方案提供商,合理价格15.5元-18.6元

申萬宏源 ·  Jun 8, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company is a complete solution provider for industrial intelligent transportation and ingredients. The company's main business is auxiliary equipment systems, electrical conveying systems and small material weighing systems. From 2012 to 2014, the company's foreign sales accounted for between 10% and 30% of revenue. The company's products were mainly domestic sales, supplemented by foreign sales. The company uses a business model where production is determined by sales and direct sales. The main downstream industry of the company's products is the rubber industry. The main customers are Hankook Tire, Triangle Tire, Zhengxin Rubber, KONE Tire, and Giti Tire. The global rubber industry is in a stable stage of development. According to IRSG data from the International Rubber Organization, from 2009 to the first half of 2014, global rubber production grew steadily, with a compound growth rate of 4.1% from 2010 to 2013, providing stable market demand for rubber processing equipment. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rubber product equipment investment had a compound growth rate of 23% in 2010-2013, reaching 74.17 billion yuan in 2013. The market share of the company's products is stable. The company has industry-leading R&D and production technology, and has a certain market position in the domestic rubber machinery field. According to data from the China Rubber Machinery Industry Committee, the market share of the company's products in the domestic rubber machinery industry from 2011 to 2013 was 1.38%, 1.54%, 1.33%, respectively, and the market position is stable. In 2011, the company's main competitor Soft Control Co., Ltd. and Dalian Plastics had market shares of 20.5% and 8.7% respectively. The company's R&D investment accounts for a large share of revenue. The company pays great attention to R&D investment. In 2014, the company's R&D expenses were 13.46 million yuan, accounting for 7% of revenue. High R&D investment has enabled the company to have leading domestic core technology. Risk disclosure. The company's main risks stem from the risk of customers being concentrated in the rubber industry, the risk of a relative concentration of the company's customers, and the risk of high accounts receivable. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.62 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.82 yuan (calculated based on the total share capital of 66.67 million shares after issuing 16.67 million new shares). Taking into account the company's growth and comparable company valuation, the company's reasonable price is 15.5-18.6 yuan. Special Reminder: The IPO pricing predicted in this report is not a price performance on the first day of listing, but a reasonable price range under conditions where the current market environment remains largely unchanged.

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