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【中信建投】中信建投-080813-000520长航凤凰08中报点评

中信建投證券 ·  Aug 13, 2008 00:00  · Researches

Coastal dry bulk goods continued to show a high boom in coastal dry bulk exports in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the company's tonne road freight rate increased by about 41%. It is expected that this year and next two years there will still be a high boom, and capacity will continue to be tight. The company is actively expanding its shipping capacity and stepping up supervision. Starting next year, the capacity will be heavily invested. Yangtze River Transportation continues to lose money due to vicious competition and other reasons, and the company is reducing losses through measures such as changing the way it operates. The company will be the biggest focus of the integration of Sinotrans in Changhang. As previously analyzed in the relevant report, the dry bulk business is the focus of the integration. It belongs to the two listed companies, respectively, and both are rapidly expanding as development priorities. Sinotrans's shipping assets and profitability are superior to Changhang Phoenix, and it is likely that it will become an integrated platform for dry bulk goods, thus making the company look forward to the future even more. The explosion in capacity will drive a huge leap in performance. The company's current capacity is about 2.4 million tons, but profits mainly come from the shipping capacity of 600,000 tons. The company will release 1.6 million tons of new shipping capacity in the next 3 years, the vast majority of which will be maritime capacity. Looking at total capacity, capacity in the next three years will be in line with the increase of 19%, which is a significant increase. If profitable shipping capacity is used as the basis, the three-year compound growth will reach 54%, the highest in the industry. Profit forecasts and investment ratings remain the same as the earnings forecasts and investment ratings of the previous report. Due to a sharp increase in effective capacity in the future, future profit forecasts may be more conservative, and the company's valuation disadvantage will gradually disappear.

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