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【财富证券】中飞股份:核电加工设备制造用材的领军者

財富證券 ·  Jun 16, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company plans to issue new shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on June 19, 2015. Investment points The company is committed to leading enterprises in the field of manufacturing special equipment for nuclear power. The company's main business is mainly R&D, production and sales of high-performance aluminum alloy materials and machined leveling. The main business can be divided into manufacturing and trade businesses, as well as a small number of contract processing businesses. Sales revenue from manufacturing products has always been the main source of the company's main business revenue. In 2014, the company's manufacturing product revenue accounted for 71.96% of its main business revenue, respectively; in addition, the company's sales revenue in the nuclear energy sector accounted for 90.89% of its main business revenue. The company's main customers in the field of nuclear power are CNNC Machinery and research institutes under CNNC. The company is the main research and development unit for special equipment for nuclear fuel processing. Given the advanced nature of special equipment manufacturing technology and the importance of the industry, only units involved in the development of aluminum alloy materials for this special equipment can become suppliers of high-performance aluminum alloy materials within this industry. The company was selected as one of the main suppliers in this field in 2008. Currently, there are three qualified suppliers of aluminum alloy materials for special equipment that have passed the selection and become qualified suppliers of aluminum alloy materials for special equipment. Any company supporting processing parts is only allowed to order from these three suppliers. In 2014, sales of the products provided by the company to this industry accounted for 38% of total market purchases. The other two companies, Northwest Aluminum and Beijing 621, together accounted for 62%. The preparation technology for special equipment for domestic nuclear fuel processing is internationally leading, and the policy is favorable to support it. More than 80% of the structural materials for special equipment in China are high-performance aluminum alloy materials. The high-performance aluminum alloy materials used include aluminum alloys that can be strengthened by heat treatment, such as 7000 series, 2000 series, and 6000 series. China has successfully developed and implemented industrial applications, making China one of the few countries in the world that have achieved industrial production, and its manufacturing technology is at the international advanced level. The state has introduced a series of policies to provide strong support. For example, in the “High-tech Areas Supported by the State”, isotope enrichment technology and key equipment, high-performance fuel parts technology, uranium-plutonium mixed oxide fuel technology, and advanced spent fuel reprocessing technology are among the high-tech technologies that the state supports. China's aluminum processing industry continues to expand, and the market prospects for aluminum alloy materials for special equipment are broad. At present, the overall production scale of China's aluminum processing industry continues to expand. From 2001 to 2013, the total output of aluminum extrusions and forgings for industrial use in China has increased from 414,000 tons in 2001 to 5.182 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 23.44%. According to the development goals set out in the national “Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power (2005-2020)”, by 2020, the operating capacity of nuclear power is aimed at reaching 40 million kilowatts (the share of nuclear power in the total installed capacity of electricity has increased from the current installed capacity of 9.1 million kilowatts, accounting for 1.3% of the total installed capacity of electricity to 4%); the annual power generation capacity of nuclear power will reach 260 to 280 billion kilowatt-hours. By 2020, China's nuclear power installations will reach 58 million kilowatts in operation and 30 million kilowatts under construction. Products tend to be diversified, and sales in the non-nuclear sector continue to rise. From 2012 to 2014, the company's sales revenue in the non-nuclear sector was 8,019,791.25 yuan, 14,531,514.87 yuan, and 14,280,186.45 yuan, respectively, and the number of customers exceeded 20. At present, the company has begun to vigorously explore the market in the non-nuclear sector, striving to strengthen sales in the nuclear field while at the same time expanding the market in the non-nuclear field, and eventually form a business development model where “nuclear and non-nuclear” go hand in hand. It is expected that in the future, as the customer base in the non-nuclear field continues to grow, the company's sales revenue in the non-nuclear field will continue to rise. Raise capital for investment. It is planned to issue no more than 11.35 million shares, and the net capital raised will not exceed 16.205 million yuan. After deducting issuance fees, all of the funds raised will be used for the “High Performance Aluminum Alloy Material Industrialization Project for Special Equipment for Nuclear Fuel Processing”. The project produces 8,950 tons of high-performance aluminum alloy materials per year, of which 5,072 tons are aluminum alloy materials for special equipment for nuclear fuel processing, and another 3,878 tons are high-performance aluminum alloy materials for non-nuclear fields. The estimated total investment in this fund-raising investment project is 414.96 million yuan, of which 414.43 million yuan is the underlying working capital, the total investment for project construction is 373.53 million yuan, and the proposed use of raised capital to invest 162.05 million yuan (excluding issuance fees). Profit forecasting and pricing. We believe that the company will maintain steady growth. According to the average growth rate of the nonferrous metals industry of 12% and the profit forecast of the company's fund-raising projects, the operating income for 2015 and 2016 is estimated to be 176 million yuan and 197 million yuan respectively, net profit is 40 million yuan and 45 million yuan respectively, and the diluted EPS is 0.89 yuan and 1.00 yuan respectively. According to the average valuation of the garment and textile industry where the company is located, the nuclear power industry is given a valuation premium of 30-35 times PE. The corresponding reasonable range is 26.70- 31.15 yuan. If the calculation is based on the amount of capital the company plans to raise and various issuance fees is added, the minimum issue price for full raising is 19.3223 million yuan. Based on the issued share capital of 11.35 million shares, the minimum issue price for full raising is about 17.56 yuan. Risk warning. Policy adjustments over a specific period may bring certain risks; customer concentration may lead to related risks; fluctuations in raw material prices will have a greater impact on the company's operations; and risks caused by nuclear power safety accidents.

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