Main points of investment:
Excellent national brand of domestic turbocharger
The company mainly produces turbochargers, which are widely used in automobiles, construction machinery, agricultural machinery and other fields.
At present, the company is one of the "top three" among the national brands of domestic automotive turbochargers, with a domestic market share of 6% in 2012 and has a comparative advantage in independent brands.
The prospect of the industry is sexy, and the company actively develops and cooperates with the release of production capacity, and rapid growth is expected.
1) at the industry level, from the perspective of energy security and motor vehicle energy saving and emission reduction, transmission energy-saving technologies such as cost-effective turbochargers have good prospects and large market space in the future. we estimate that the market scale of China's automotive turbochargers will reach 6.94 million, 8.63 million and 11.3 million respectively in 2015-17, an increase of 17.63, 24.33 and 30.98%, showing a trend of accelerated outbreak, and the company will fully benefit. 2) at the company level, on the one hand, we will actively develop and mass produce high-end commercial vehicles and large turbochargers for marine and generator sets, and at the same time, the newly developed diesel engines and commercial vehicle customers, such as Yuchai, Dongfeng, Qingling, Jiangling and so on, it is expected that the volume will begin to be released one after another this year, which will help the company to surpass the diesel engine market boom cycle and achieve market share improvement. On the other hand, actively entering the market sexy automotive gasoline engine turbocharger field is a necessary step for the company to open up the growth space, which is conducive to improving the company's product and customer structure, enhancing the company's profitability, and providing support for the company's rapid growth in medium-and long-term performance in the future, which can be carried out through independent research and development, joint ventures or mergers and acquisitions of high-quality targets. 3) the company's fund-raising projects and subsidiary parts production capacity have been released one after another, and actively improve production efficiency, which is conducive to speeding up the pace of company performance growth and improving the company's profitability. 4) the market for high-end diesel commercial vehicles and turbochargers for gasoline engines is improving, and it is logical for the company to speed up its expansion to seize the opportunity of rapid development. Considering that the company's operating cash flow is tight and there is not much monetary cash, foreign financing is inevitable in the future. 5) the senior executives of the company are getting younger, and some executives, such as general manager and deputy general manager, have not directly or indirectly held equity in the company. We speculate that in the future, the company is expected to stimulate the enthusiasm of these young executives and core technical personnel through management or employee stock ownership and equity incentives, which is conducive to the medium-and long-term healthy and rapid development of the company.
Profit forecast, covering the first time to give a "buy" rating
We estimate that the company's operating income in 2015-17 will be 2.90 shock 3.89 / 497 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.30 shock 33.82 shock 27.84%, and a return net profit of 0.31 shock 0.41 / 58 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.49max 32.96 shock 40.84%. Corresponding to the increase in equity, the EPS is 0.19, 0.25 and 0.35 yuan per share respectively. We believe that the company is in the product research and development reserve period, as the company actively develops new customers and enters the field of gasoline engines, high-end commercial vehicles, new energy and alternative fuel internal combustion engine superchargers, in line with the release of production capacity, the future growth space is about to open, the performance inflection point is coming, and the total market capitalization of the company is obviously smaller than that of A-share comparable companies.
For the first time, coverage gives a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the mass production of new customers and new product development is lower than expected; the cost growth during the company period is higher than expected; the fund-raising project and subsidiary Connor Seiko capacity release is lower than expected.
