First, the company profile.
Heilongjiang Zhenbaodao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a modern pharmaceutical enterprise that produces, sells and develops high-end traditional Chinese medicine preparation products. In order to speed up the perfect combination of traditional medicine and modern science and technology, Zhenbao Pharmaceutical has formed a complete pharmaceutical industry chain from variety research and development, traditional Chinese medicine planting, extraction, preparation production, drug inspection, sales and distribution.
The enterprise's drug research and development ability, traditional Chinese medicine resource control ability and market risk resolution ability have been rapidly enhanced; the level of technology, technology and equipment and new product research and development level have been rapidly improved.
Second, competitive advantage.
1. Cardio-cerebrovascular drugs are the first category of the company.
Its revenue scale in 2014 was 1.252 billion, with an income contribution ratio of about 79%, of which three core products (Xuesaitong for injection, Shuxuening injection and Xueshuantong capsule) accounted for more than 70%. The company's historical compound growth rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medication is 11%, and is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future.
2. Osteopeptide for injection is the second largest product of the company.
Its revenue scale in 2014 was 185 million, and its income contribution ratio was 12%. It is expected to continue to grow rapidly above a small base in the future.
3. The scale of cardio-cerebrovascular drug use is large, the growth rate is fast, and the share of proprietary Chinese medicine is increasing.
The overall scale of cardio-cerebrovascular drugs has exceeded 150 billion, the compound growth rate is 19% (data from the prospectus), the growth rate of proprietary Chinese medicine is close to 25%, and the share continues to rise to 30%. Proprietary Chinese medicine injection forms account for 20%, Panax notoginseng saponins and ginkgo biloba, respectively.
Third, profit forecast and valuation.
It is predicted that the EPS of the company from 2015 to 2017 (calculated according to the total share capital of 424.58 million shares after issue) is 1.28,1.46 and 1.68 yuan respectively. It is expected that the company's performance is expected to maintain steady growth in the future driven by the steady growth of core varieties and the rapid growth of small base products. The offering price of 23.6 yuan, offering price-to-earnings ratio of 22.91 times, taking into account the valuation of comparable companies and industry growth space, to recommend the purchase rating.
Risk hints: the price of the company's main traditional Chinese medicine materials is rising, the growth of the main products is lower than expected, the price reduction of the main products is higher than expected, and there are potential drug safety risks in traditional Chinese medicine injection.