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【东方证券】长航凤凰:转折过后期待更高

東方證券 ·  Apr 12, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  2006 was a year of corporate restructuring and transformation. In the first half of 2006, the company's main business revenue came from the petrochemical business, and in the second half of 2006, the company completed restructuring and became a shipping company. The restructuring brought about a significant increase in the company's performance, achieving net profit of 77.76 million yuan, an increase of 260% over 2005. In 2007, the company plans to add 196,000 tons of capacity. In line with our expectations, the total capacity increased by about 8% compared to 2006. The additional capacity should be mainly in river-sea intermodal transport, and is expected to increase turnover by about 15%. It is estimated that the earnings per share of the company's main business will be 0.23 yuan in 2007, and the current dynamic price-earnings ratio is 30 times higher. We believe that the company's current business will not bring any surprises in 2007, but the company is actively seeking transformation. By building new large-scale sea ships, speeding up the development of river-sea freighters, and improving the Yangtze River capacity structure, the company expects to expand one-way iron ore transportation, focus on developing second-way transportation, and consolidate its position in three-way transportation, so that the share of profitable one-way and two-way transportation in revenue will increase dramatically, thus improving the company's business performance. Once the transformation is successful, the company's performance will usher in a qualitative leap. However, the high shareholding costs of major shareholders, the low shareholding ratio, and the strong demand to expand the first and second stages of ore capacity have also left the company with more room for capital management. The company used 4.60 yuan per share to participate in celebrity real estate and issue an additional 11.5 million shares, which can bring huge equity investment returns. We believe that Changhang Phoenix's investment opportunities will be event-driven, and we recommend that they be closely followed.

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