Company diluted after 2014-2016 actual and forecast EPS0.47, 0.52,0.53 yuan. Comparable companies'PE in 2015 is 25 times, which is 51 times the valuation of the CSRC industry in the last month, and we estimate that the company's offering price is 57% lower than that of the CSRC industry.
It is recommended that the company quote 9.13 yuan, corresponding to the diluted PE of 21.90 times in 2014.
The estimated success rate is 0.59% online, 0.43% offline for public offering and social security, 0.26% for annuity and insurance, and 0.15% for others. It is estimated that 39.1 billion yuan will be frozen online and 10.6 billion yuan will be frozen offline, totaling 49.7 billion yuan.
Cost of capital: as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall capital area begins to tighten. It is expected that the frozen capital of this batch of new shares will reach 1.95 trillion yuan, and the seven-day repo rate is expected to reach 6.5%.
It is estimated that there are 6 limit boards, and the new annualized rate of return sold on the broken board is 43% online, 32% offline public offering and social security, 18% annuity and insurance, and the other 9%. It is estimated that the annualized rate of return of the broken board is the highest. In terms of absolute rate of return, online, public social security and annuity insurance can get broken board absolute returns of 0.72%, 0.53%, 0.31% and 0.16%, respectively.
Analysis of the basic situation of the company
The company's main products are precision bearing steel balls, which is the leading enterprise in the field of precision bearing steel balls in China. In the past three years, the sales revenue in the field of domestic bearing steel balls ranks first.
Development space: bearings are mainly used in manufacturing industries such as motor vehicles and machinery and equipment, and we believe that when macroeconomic growth begins to decline and the economy gradually shifts to the service industry, then the downstream demand of bearings may be affected to a certain extent. On the other hand, the demand for some hand tools and high-end products may not be affected, bringing the demand for steel balls in bearings.
The company's competitive advantage: 1) the company is the leader of the industry and has technological advantages. 2) customer advantage: the company has a core competitive advantage in the field of high-end bearing steel balls, and is the only domestic steel ball enterprise entering the global procurement system of Gekane Group and Skyver Group. It will take at least 3 years for bearing steel balls to be recognized by customers.
Risks: macroeconomic downturn leads to a decline in demand for bearing steel balls; high customer concentration brings business risks; fluctuations in raw material prices; the risk of increasingly fierce market competition.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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