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【海通证券】京天利:专业移动信息服务厂商,先发优势明显

海通證券 ·  Sep 23, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The chairman of the board has strong control over the company, and core key employees generally hold shares. The company was founded in January 2006 and has been focusing on the field of mobile information services since its establishment. It is a professional mobile information application overall solution provider, mainly cooperating with telecom operators to provide industry mobile information services and personal mobile information services. The major shareholders of the company are Qian Yongyao, Qian Yongmei, Xinyuan Investment, Tianjin Zhihui, Kuang Qing, and Sun Wei. Among them, the controlling shareholder of Xinyuan Investment is Qian Yongmei, while Tianjin Zhihui is a holding company of company executives and core employees. We believe that this shareholding arrangement is conducive to solving the incentive problems of the company's employees and also helps the company maintain long-term development momentum; Chairman Qian Yongyao directly and indirectly controls 54.4% of the company's shares before issuance, and is the actual controller of the company. Currently, the company has no holding subsidiaries or participating companies. The company now plans to publicly issue 20 million shares, all of which are new shares, and there are no plans to transfer old shares. 2. The overall growth rate of the short MMS service market is slowing down, and there is still room for development in the industry application market. Mobile information services are services provided by a combination of communication technology and information technology. Service forms include SMS, MMS, apps, light applications, etc., and their functions cover various business links such as customer service, mobile office, mobile commerce, and mobile finance. We judge that the future development of the domestic mobile information service market will show the following trends: First, the number of mobile users and smartphones has further increased, providing a good foundation for the continuous development of mobile information services. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the number of domestic mobile phone users in 2013 was 1.23 billion, accounting for about 82.2% of total users. According to statistics from Yiguan International, China's smartphone sales volume in 2013 was 340 million units, accounting for 87.9% of total sales volume; second, the SMS business began to be affected by OTT. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 2013 The annual national mobile SMS business volume was 891.7 billion, down 0.6% from the previous year. For the first time in history, there was a decline, while MMS business volume still grew by 23.0%, and there is still some room for growth in the future. Third, the industry application market has some potential for development. Industry SMS is currently the main form of mobile information service in the industry. It has characteristics such as instantaneity, accuracy, and strong promotion. In the future, with the expansion of the application industry and business links, there is still room for development. According to the company's prospectus disclosure, the scale of SMS business in the domestic industry is expected to grow in 2015 More than 290 billion articles. 3. The company is a professional mobile information service provider and has close cooperative relationships with operators. The company is an overall solution provider for mobile information applications. Its main business is to provide industry mobile information services and personal mobile information services. Industry mobile information services mainly provide overall mobile information application solutions for large and medium-sized domestic group customers, covering services such as customized development, business integration, operation support, and customer relationship management; personal mobile information services mainly provide mobile securities services, and provide users with timely and accurate securities market data, financial information, etc. through SMS and MMS in response to the needs of individual users. Industry mobile information services are the company's main source of revenue and profit. From 2011 to 2013, the industry's mobile information service business revenue accounted for 86.0%, 92.8%, and 93.8% of revenue, respectively, while gross profit accounted for 92.6%, 97.8%, and 92.7%, respectively. The company is a professional manufacturer focusing on mobile information service solutions. We believe that the company's main competitiveness lies in: First, its close cooperation advantage with China Mobile. The company is a business operation support unit designated by China Mobile, a group business integrator, and a long-term partner of China Unicom and China Telecom. It can better grasp the development direction and cooperation needs of operators, especially China Mobile, in the mobile information service business, thus maintaining a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with operators; second, the industry pioneering advantage. The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises engaged in mobile information services, and is developing In the process, rich industry experience has been accumulated, and the business scale is leading in the industry, and the industry's short MMS business volume in 2013 was close to 7 billion; third, customer resource advantages. The total number of group customers served by the company exceeded 300, including high-quality customers in various fields such as finance, transportation, e-commerce, retail, cultural media, etc., and a large number of high-quality customers not only became a stable source of income, but also provided rich resources for the company to accumulate experience in related industries. 4. Analysis of the company's fund-raising projects. The company has now publicly issued 20 million shares and plans to raise about 170 million yuan in capital to invest in next-generation industry mobile information service platform projects, personal mobile financial information service platform projects, marketing network system construction projects, and R&D center construction projects. We believe that industry mobile information service platform projects and personal mobile financial information service platform projects are the foundation of the company's main business. The implementation of fund-raising projects will help the company further improve the implementation and service capabilities of mobile information services and maintain long-term profitability; while marketing network system construction projects and R&D center construction projects will help enhance the company's marketing and R&D capabilities and enhance the company's competitiveness in marketing and product development. 5. The release price is low, so a subscription is recommended. We forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from 2014 to 2016 to be 46.16 million yuan, 54.8 million yuan and 6443 million yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.58 yuan, 0.68 yuan and 0.81 yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of about 12.2% over the next three years. The company's issuance price is 11.19 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of about 19 times that of 2014, and the issue price is relatively low. Considering that the company has the ability to grow steadily and that the market is enthusiastic about investing in new shares recently, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation is 30 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2014, and the target price for 6 months is 17.40 yuan, so investors are advised to actively subscribe. Risk warning: contract renewal risk; major account dependency risk; settlement method change risk; new technology replacement risk.

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