Cover and give "overweight" rating for the first time, with a target price of 85 yuan. Taking advantage of the insurance industry service experience and expertise accumulated in the exhibition industry practice, Jing Tianli cut into the automobile extended insurance business with a market space of 54 billion yuan, and recently acquired Shanghai's prestigious and overweight Internet insurance business. the pace of transformation is firm and rapid. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2014 to 2016 is 0.51, 0.65 and 0.83 yuan respectively. Combined with PE and PEG valuation, we give Jingtian Libi average PEG (FY1) = 6 times valuation, corresponding to the target price of 85 yuan. According to the current market price still has 18% room to rise, for the first time to cover the "overweight" rating.
Related diversification cuts into the blue ocean market of extended automobile protection. The market thinks that the company lacks the insurance business gene. However, we believe that the company has accumulated rich service experience and expertise in the insurance industry over the years, and it is a related diversification to carry out automobile extended insurance business. At present, the domestic automobile extended warranty penetration rate is less than 1%, while the United States has reached 35%, with a market capacity of more than 11 billion US dollars. We predict that as domestic cars enter the stock market, extended warranty awareness and demand will continue to rise. In 2020, the automobile extended warranty penetration rate is expected to reach 20%, and the market capacity is expected to reach 54 billion yuan. Recently, the company bought 80% of Shanghai Yuehao with 82.39 million, further strengthening the strategy of transforming Internet insurance and opening up a broad space for growth in the future.
The volume of short MMS service will continue to grow. The market believes that by the impact of the mobile Internet, the short MMS business will be seriously affected, and the sending volume will continue to shrink. We believe that short MMS has the characteristics of immediacy, accuracy and strong push, and still has an irreplaceable position in the domestic industry mobile information service market, and it is expected that the sending volume of industry text messages will still be in a growing trend. Beijing University of posts and Telecommunications estimates that the number of text messages in the domestic industry will exceed 250 billion in 2014 and more than 290 billion in 2015.
Catalyst: formally introduce automobile extended insurance products to the market; the pace of upstream and downstream mergers and acquisitions is accelerated.
Risk hint: the promotion of automobile extended insurance products has been blocked; the delivery volume of short MMS service has declined.