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【安信证券】康跃科技:国内内燃机配套增压器领先企业

[Anxin Securities] Kangyue Technology: a leading domestic turbocharger for internal combustion engine

安信證券 ·  Jul 21, 2014 16:14  · Researches

The company is a professional manufacturer of internal combustion engine turbocharger.

The company is a key high-tech enterprise of the National Torch Plan, which integrates the research and development, manufacture and sales of internal combustion engine supercharger. The main business is the research and development, manufacture and sales of internal combustion engine turbocharger, which is the main professional manufacturer of internal combustion engine turbocharger in China, and its products are widely used in automobile, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, ship, generator set and other fields. The company's turbocharger's domestic market share was 6% in 2012.

The internal combustion engine industry continues to grow at a high speed, and the demand for turbochargers increases.

China's internal combustion engine industry has a strong growth momentum. During the 12th five-year Plan period, the growth target of the internal combustion engine industry is 8%, 10%, and the industry efficiency is up to 10%, 15%. Domestic internal combustion engine production is expected to increase rapidly in the next five years, and the total internal combustion engine output in 2017 is expected to reach 101 million units, an increase of 31.17% over 2012. The comprehensive matching rate of domestic turbochargers will also increase steadily, reaching more than 12% in 2017, an increase of 5.78 percentage points over 2012. It is estimated that the domestic market capacity of turbochargers will reach 12.6 million units in 2017, an increase of 144.2% over 2012. ■ fundraising projects will expand production capacity and improve independent innovation capacity.

The fund-raising investment projects are all carried out around the company's main business, the turbocharger expansion project is the expansion of the company's existing business, and the technology center expansion project is to further enhance the company's independent innovation capability.

After reaching production, the project can increase the annual production capacity of 300000 turbochargers, with an average annual sales income of 216.814 million yuan, an average annual profit of 47.811 million yuan, a rate of return on investment of 39.70%, and an after-tax internal rate of return of 65.50%.

It is suggested that the inquiry range is 9.8-9.9 yuan.

We estimate that from 2014 to 2016, the company's operating income will be 303.9 million yuan, 367.7 million yuan and 441.3 million yuan, and the net profit attributed to the parent company will be 46.9 million yuan, 57.0 million yuan and 63.9 million yuan, up 34.2%, 21.6% and 12.0% respectively over the same period last year. According to the post-IPO equity, the corresponding EPS is 0.70,0.86,0.96 yuan. With reference to the average dynamic price-earnings ratio of comparable companies in 2014, we think it is reasonable to give the company 22-26 times dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2014. The corresponding reasonable value range is 15.4-18.2yuan, and the proposed inquiry range is 9.8-9.9 yuan.

Risk hints: the risk of cyclical fluctuations in downstream industries, the risk of relative concentration of customers, the risk of industry competition, the risk of higher amounts of accounts receivable and notes receivable, the higher risk of inventory, the risk of raw material supply and price fluctuations, the risk of preferential tax policies and local government subsidy policies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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