The differences:
Leading information anti-counterfeiting in high-end fields such as finance. The company's electronic payment password system covers the entire industry chain of cryptographic algorithms, chip design, system construction, and terminals, and has long been a leader in high-end anti-counterfeiting such as finance. In particular, being the sole supplier of anti-counterfeiting chips for financial instruments further highlights its firm central position in the industrial chain. However, the future application of its anti-cloning technology in the commercial field may create a new blue ocean.
Key points of investment:
The compound growth rate of electronic password payment systems will exceed 30% in the next 3 years. Currently, information anti-counterfeiting is becoming the first choice for financial institutions to prevent counterfeiting, and the recognition of electronic password payment systems continues to rise as a successful application of information anti-counterfeiting. Despite continuous promotion, the current market penetration rate is only 14%, and there is huge room for future growth. It is expected that the market penetration rate will increase by about 5% every year over the next 4 years. Coupled with the downstream market-bank-to-public accounts maintaining an annual growth rate of around 10%, the compound growth rate of electronic password payment systems in the next 3 years will exceed 30%, and the scale of electronic password payer systems is expected to exceed 3 billion yuan in 2015.
The company's advantage in the electronic cryptographic payment device market continues to strengthen. Leading technology has made it a long-term industry leader, and it occupies 30% of the market share of electronic password payers, ranking first in the market. High-end customers such as corporate finance include more than 200 provincial and municipal bank branches, more than 20,000 bank branches, and more than 1 million enterprises and institutions. Furthermore, the company is also the only manufacturer of cryptographic chips for financial instruments approved by the National Cryptographic Administration, and its central position in the industrial chain is difficult to beat. Many advantages will continue to expand the company's position in the market.
Anti-cloning technology opens up a new commercial blue ocean. The company focuses on applying information anti-counterfeiting technology to the bill field. In addition to having 55 patents and having won the second prize for national scientific and technological progress, it is also one of the few companies in the world that has mastered anti-cloning technology such as paper pattern. Promoting anti-counterfeiting of this technology to commercial fields such as tickets, tickets, and lottery tickets will open up a new blue ocean market.
Continued high growth can be expected, buying ratings for the first time. The company's EPS for 2012-2014 is expected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.36 yuan and 1.88 yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of performance is expected to exceed 35%. We think the reasonable price is 34 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 2013. A buying rating was given for the first time.
Key assumptions: The company's revenue growth rate will be 43%, 43%, and 39% respectively in the next three years, the gross margin will remain steady and slightly lower, the management and sales expense ratio will remain the average for the past three years, and financial expenses will be negative.
Risk warning: Increased competition, promotion of new products, and reliance on cryptographic testing centers may present risks.