The basic situation of the company. Tongda Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the research, development, production and sales of superfiber PU leather, and is one of the leaders of domestic superfiber PU leather. Its products include superfiber base material, ultra-fiber suede leather and ultra-fiber glossy leather, which are mainly used in shoes, sofa furniture, automobile interior decoration and seat covers and other fields. The company's superfiber PU leather products are located at the middle and high end, and have a place in the Japanese market, which represents the highest level of superfiber PU leather technology. Superfiber PU leather is the best material to fill the gap between supply and demand of dermis. Leather products are deeply loved by consumers, but natural leather is limited by the resource bottleneck of animal husbandry and the government's environmental protection policy, and its supply is far from being able to meet the expansion of demand. Among the three generations of synthetic leather, superfiber PU leather has the feel, appearance and microstructure closest to the real leather, so it is the best choice to replace the real leather, and has great market potential in the field of middle and high-end leather products.
The market gap of domestic superfiber PU leather is large. From 2005 to 2010, the demand for ultra-fiber leather in China increased from 20 million square meters to 92 million square meters, with a compound growth rate of 35.69%, much higher than the production growth rate in the same period. The effective supply of domestic ultra-fiber leather is insufficient, and the degree of import dependence has reached 47.15% in 2010. It is estimated that the demand for ultra-fiber leather in China is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 25%, and the demand will exceed 200 million square meters by 2015. Due to the large investment in unit capacity and high technical difficulty of ultra-fiber leather, the new production capacity is mainly concentrated in large enterprises, and the gap in the domestic market is still large in the future.
Fund-raising project analysis. The company raised funds to expand the production scale of 3 million square meters of eco-superfiber high simulation fabric, with a total investment of 142 million yuan, which is expected to be put into production this year. In 2011, the company's capacity utilization rate and production and sales rate were 147.49% and 98.68% respectively, and the capacity utilization rate tends to be saturated. The fund-raising project will ease the company's capacity pressure and meet the increase in customer demand. It is expected that the fund-raising project will contribute some of the benefits this year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Since 2012, the domestic demand for synthetic leather has been in the doldrums, and the performance of major synthetic leather listed companies has declined. We expect earnings per share of 1.16,1.41 and 1.67 yuan respectively from 2012 to 2014. According to the valuation analysis of four A-share synthetic leather listed companies and comprehensive consideration of the company's future growth potential, we give the company 18-20 times dynamic PE in 2012, the corresponding reasonable value range is 20.83-23.15 yuan, and the proposed inquiry range is 18.75-20.83 yuan.
Risk revelation. Downstream demand decline risk; industry competition aggravating risk; raw material price fluctuation risk and so on.